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To: Steeny who wrote (19117)	5/28/1999 11:25:00 AM
From: rodney beasley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

aol printing new high for day

To: Steeny who wrote (19117)	5/28/1999 12:07:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

Steeny, Re:' Fed may raise rates ". With all due respect to economists world wide and the fact that my two boys are going for MBAs, I take a dim view of economists' ability to look at the crystal ball. Best evidence is that 1 year ago Wall Street Jour had in Jan 98 page A2 ( I still remember gg ) 150 economists' er predictions of Jan 1997 of what interest rates were going to be in Jan 98: ONLY ONE got it right. I maintain that world wide govermnent debt/borrowing to pay for social programs, in a global economy , has weakened growth terribly ( Asia, Europe, Japan, SAmerica ).As the bubble tanked last Oct, Alan G tried to keep it floating with rate cuts. I don't think this will succeed. Europe is proof. We had a little uptick because of oil but I don't think it is sustainable long term. Consumer spending will slow as more money will have to go to pay for their health care which not a very profitable enterprise because profit margins will be razor thin. -Ultimately I think we are slowly deflating. -The only solution is for governments to stop spending money they don't have. -This is not about to happen any time soon. -thus oil and interest rates will slowly come down. -the only rapid growth in the near future will be in the internet sector. back later TA Disclaimer: 100% of my investment equity is in 12 internet stocks. TA you said: TA: ALthough I also can't believe that the FED will raise soon, there are some very bright insiders who very strongly believe the FED will raise in June(Goldman's analysts along with many economists). Yesterday's insider report pointed to the fact that the Fed has moved away from a reactionary stance to pre-emptive. The Medley report is extremely closely watched by insiders(the only people who have initial access to the it). Although it isn't said, the Medley report has a strong link to FOMC voters. The most recent report basically said that the FED will raise unless inflationary #s get WEAKER. This surprised many traders who had assumed it would take STRONG #s to raise. This means if #s come out flat, the report says the FED will raise. The hawks on the FED really want to take back the 25bps they gave to save Asia. Tuesday's NAPM will tell a lot.