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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (209)	5/31/1999 1:14:00 AM
From: poodle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

CTIC: talking about biotech valuation <g> I had it, than sold almost w/o any profit (got some very strange feeling <g>). Watched it moving back and force, have seen it almost at 5 and thought that I was very wrong. For several hours. Someone who is trying to understand the reason why many investors are avoiding biotech (without any doubt the most promising sector) may find a lot in this story. 50% changes overnight are not unusual. Pleasant to notice, NIH appointed Safety Board had no leaks, at least substantial. Regarding CTIC itself... yes, it is about book. But I wouldn't forget, it was well below 2 with more cash. Such considerations did not stop someone from selling. It was during strange time, however. Watched it at 2 3/8 Fri and ... decided not to bother. Yes, bounce is more than possible, but not my cap of tea. And the story is not extremely attractive for me. If my memory is correct, they are mainly trying to use the same substance for different applications. You can call it "multiplatform", but that's the problem of the definition. Of course, they also have another molecule, but lisofylline is main bet. I was also puzzled by insiders activity. Main buys above 3, but stock was below or at 2 for about 3 mos. If you believe that YOUR technology is great, would you buy stock at 50% of cash? Company has got second bad day. Is it about management, or technology, or circumstances, market may apply discount. Almost forgot, it happened immediately after analist's recommendation. Situation with MAGN seems to be interesting. Trial did not provide any significant evidence of toxicity or lack of antibacterial activity of the peptide. From the point of view of the expert (presented to FDA panel) they barked at the wrong tree. Infections, from his point, are not playing significant role in diabetic ulcers pathogenesis. If so, was peptide efficient or inefficient against bacterial infection was hardly important. But, as far as I remember, another antibiotic can be prescribed and its efficiency in the trial was not significantly higher than MAGN's drug.There are some regulatory issues that I had no time to get in, but we will see soon. If peptiedes work for other applications, they may be in a good shape. There are many questions, of course, and "when" is one of them. Irrelevant to these companies, but interesting: "converted 1,000 shares of the Company's Series A Preferred Stock into 666 K shares." There is no doubt that preferred convertibles are used by the Dark Force, but to be so demon-strative.. biz.yahoo.com Good luck.