To: PaulM who wrote (34661 ) 6/17/1999 10:39:00 AM From: Alex Respond to of 116786
Belief in markets means no central bank bail out By MIKE SCHUSSLER WOZAnomics Ultimately I believe in markets. Their prices indicate things like risk, supply, demand and information. Financial markets such as stock exchanges, currency markets and interest rate markets reflect changes quickly. Some markets like the labour market are more subdued but nonetheless reflect market conditions. Democracy as witnessed by free and fair elections is also ultimately a market. As the President said: "The people have spoken". But sometimes markets are not always that efficient and they often over or under shoot their actual real targets. Mostly, however, they tend to return to normal and then one can make money in the financial markets. Risk, however, is not always well understood while the role that greed plays in markets is the one area where risk is not measurable. Assuming that markets always go back to their true value then why do people, often for years, buy overvalued stock, currencies and commodities? Stupidity is not the answer; rather it is the false hope of intervention which helps people forget that risk means that losses are also a possibility. When the markets remind people of the possibility of losses then the word 'crisis' appears out of nowhere. Then governments or central banks must make these losses disappear and governments are reminded of their electoral market place and blamed for losses in the financial market place. When markets are successful investors want governments to stay away. Many market hungry profiteers believe in markets when money fills their pockets. Well, markets have cycles and when the top disappears and the downward slope picks up speed then uncles Greenspan, Duisenberg and George better help - fast. Ultimately the helpless greedy profiteers do not believe in markets but rather that central banks guarantee their profits. This situation does not work in the long run, as Keynes said. Then the run itself is on the critical list. Keynesian intervention died a long death and the funeral was expensive. I believe that the markets will soon come under pressure and then the belief in them will be tested. That will be the period when all those speculators become spectators who believe that governments are not doing enough. If the markets come under pressure, as has been the case in Japan for the last ten years, then even cheap money may not help. Japan - the country with cheap credit, lots of savings, expensive goods and no consumers. Every second economist wants Japan to do something, anything, but anything does not seem good enough. So ultimately the Japanese markets do not listen to Japanese governments and do not work according to every second economist's wishes. Which reminds me that ultimately markets rule, even if players do not believe the referee in every match, the referee's word is the last. The market plays a new game every minute and just like the referee, its word will be the last. In 1997 everyone wanted the IMF and Federal Reserve Bank to ride to the rescue. Later it emerged that the IMF made matters worse and the Fed lowered rates and now they have their own bubble to contend with. Foolishly many investors were saved from their own judgments. I do not think that markets should necessarily fall, but even when they do I will still believe in the market. Authorities should not be asked to interfere when the market goes against the players, nor should governments interfere by suppressing the market either. When everyone believes that governments will not come to the rescue of profits (nor take them away), then the markets will reflect risk better and greed in a small way will be kept in check. woza.co.za