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Technology Stocks : IDT *(idtc) following this new issue?* -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Hawaii60 who wrote (8620)5/30/1999 12:49:00 PM
From: Andrew H  Respond to of 30916
 
H60, I saw the chart and it certainly does seem that IDTC is tracking the Inuts. JB Maria also posted that during the month of May the telco index declined by about 30%.

However, none of these stocks announced a long awaited IPO with some of the top CIs in the world. And none tanked as much as IDTC in the 7 days after the announcement.

So, my best guess is that it was a combination of all the factors, although it does seem to mitigate the NTOP shares factor.

>>Is it possible that all this hoopla about NTOP shares has just been a convenient excuse?<<



To: Hawaii60 who wrote (8620)5/30/1999 3:38:00 PM
From: Jules B. Garfunkel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 30916
 
H,
I posted this to you on May 8, 1999, but I think it deserves posting it here again, in view of the charts you introduced.
Jules
================
To: Hawaii60 (7472 ) Saturday, May 8 1999 12:33PM ET
From: Jules B. Garfunkel Reply # of 7474
All,
Earlier this week I asked the thread to consider the implications of
the ATT acquisition of Media One. Although, I did not mention it at
the time, the later announcement by Microsoft, that they would invest in the new ATT venture, underscored the dynamic changes that are taking place in the Internet Industry. These significant changes were highlighted this last week by the acceleration of the "Internet over Cable" approach.

It appears to me, that it is no coincidence that the traditional
Internet stocks have all been dropping in price ever since AT&T
announced its intent to acquire Media One. Subsequent to those
announcements, a new urgency has emerged. An urgency that has dictated
that the more traditional, "Internet over Copper Telephony line"
companies must respond to.... and respond quickly. These "Internet
over telephone lines" companies must now rapidly revamp their
broadband growth plans. If they do not respond quickly, they risk
loosing the momentum that has clearly been established over the last
two years, and in addition, loose control over their own destiny.

It is for these reasons, I believe, that the anticipated announcements from IDT have been delayed. (I do not buy IDT's explanation that they must have 100% of the bonds converted before they make their widely anticipated series of announcements).

However, more significant for us IDTC shareholders, in my opinion, is that the value of IDT has gone up dramatically subsequent to the ATT, MSFT, Media One announcement. The ability of a company to offer Voice Over Internet, is a unique application. It is an application that AT&T is vulnerable to. It is an application that AT&T will not be able to match, with its Internet over Cable approach, for many years to come. Add to this; IDT's Net2Phone, their Fiber Optic Network already in place, their expanding reliable ISP business, and their existing 5000 subscriber Geni base, (all here NOW), and you have a VERY VALUABLE company for many of these Internet companies. Adding IDT's applications to an Internet company's traditional offerings, I believe, will go a long way to lessen the threat of "Internet over Cable", and allow these companies to defend their continued control of their own destiny.

My conclusion therefore, is that whatever IDT was worth a month ago,
it is worth substantially more subsequent to the AT&T, MSFT and Media One announcement. Calculating exactly how much more, is what, I think, is taking IDT time to figure out over the last three weeks. It is why, I believe, they have delayed their announcements with Softbank, and the Net2Phone IPO, final plans.
Just my opinion,
Jules