To: Meathead who wrote (129942 ) 5/31/1999 8:18:00 PM From: Mark Peterson CPA Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 176387
Well, I don't believe that throwing money at a problem ever solves it, and I'm sure you don't either. I also think we're in the same corner about avoiding ill-fated acquisitions just for the sake of a short term market buzz. Who needs a 2.5B write-down these days? But there's something to be said for owning the leadership role in an area that long-term, will define portions of the internet as we may come to know it. And everyone knows DELL has just done that in the area of on-line sales. But IMO, the CMGI business model can't be duplicated by DELL by building a CMGI-comparable business from within. There are a number of reasons why. It's been my understanding that DELL lays off its development risk by letting others in the industry invest in R&D. Once a verifyable demand for a concept is exciting enough in realized revenue and profit to turn heads at the company, DELL adopts the opportunity through the normal course of business and goes head-to-head with its competitors. A measured, systematic, and rational approach to business. Also risk averse and prudent. But its this very culture of "you go first when it comes to taking investment risk" that IMO would work against Dell in building a CMGI comparable. And that's not to say that DELL hasn't taken its share of risks. Affecting cultural change in a business is a far more difficult task than driving a productivity process, building a new plant, or sustaining gross margin integrity across multiple product lines. And an entirely new culture that embraces reasonable investment risk in volatile market conditions would be difficult to develop internally even if specific resources were dedicated to do just that. And having deep pockets doesn't make it easier. Just makes the learning curve more expensive. And the payback longer. Take a look at the investment bankers: GS, Bear Stearns, MSDW, BBRS to name a few. All have access to broad capital markets. All have dedicated FTE's looking for new opportunities and homes for investment capital. And as some of the best in the business, none have made an impression or impact as notable as CMGI. There is a saying that "specialization is for insects" and that's probably true when it comes to CMGI. Alot of worker bees out there just cross-pollinating blossoms and gathering honey. And yes, 14B for an acquisition is a staggering sum. But the mistake that many make in valuing CMGI (and the market, every day, clearly establishes the company's value) is they value the low hanging fruit (current public and non-public companies) on the tree today, stir in a bit for intrinsic or going concern value, and arrive at an estimate of fair market value. Unfortunately, what many miss IMO is the recognition that CMGI will continue to produce entirely new fruit on a recurring basis that has yet to be identified, nurtured, or harvested. And yes, I know that the risk for new IPOs in the marketplace will affect the yield. And its already priced into the stock. Too much so, IMO. It's fair to say that a company like DELL or any other could certainly attempt to compete with CMGI in its own arena. But CMGI does have the lead in this business and there's nobody on the horizon I see that's taking it away. SFE? Not even a distant second. It is an undisputed fact that DELL has the lead in internet sales. And by the time DELL's competitors adopt and ramp comparable models, DELL will be well on its way to new arenas that still leave its competitors fumbling for an answer from their own best and brightest. And DELL will still be several years ahead. CMGI is no different. But perhaps their risk embracing culture carries with it the possibility of greater shareholder rewards adjusted for that risk. DELL is the hardware store that produces and sells the best picks and shovels money can buy. CMGI is an amalgamation of miners out on the edge of the technology frontier, staking claims and working those picks and shovels. The relationship between DELL and CMGI is certainly symbiotic. In their respective ways, both excel at producing risk adjusted returns for their shareholders. And I still think embracing a blend of those cultures through an acquisition would benefit DELL and its shareholders. Best regards, Mark A. Peterson