To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (18640 ) 5/31/1999 2:19:00 PM From: patrick tang Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25814
Jock, 1. Using $2.17B or whatever as 'average' - I think the real # that matters, i.e. the one that the street is interested in, is the $435M for Q4 from which sales increases will be based. The earnings expectations will be as laid out in their Oct. cc. The $435M was for both LSI and Symbios together the first time and thus things in the future will be judged to that. LSI pretty much met the earnings expectations for Q1, hence they decided to cut back 1 - 2% for sales growth to 'stuff' Q2. From all indications, I think they probably can do >6% growth for Q2, but unless they absolutely have to because of customer demands, they will probably push back shipments by one weekend so it will come it right at 6%. Growth companies 'control' the #s that way everyday. Gives them credibility with the street. 2. I don't see much 'evilness' in INTC and MSFT. Part business and part necessity - at the beginning of such phenominal growth of a brand new technology, I think it is ncesssary to have leaders to push things forward. Once it matures, then the functionality takes over and nobody cares what's inside as long as it works- linux in PSII, MediaGX webpads, StrongARM, total don't care. Monopoly will be broken, but not in the traditional way as another 'dorminant' guy takes over. But we need the technology to mature and stabilize first for that to happen. 3. Malaysia allows LSI to time the 12". Without Malaysia, LSI has to go for another fab once they are maxed out. With Malaysia, they can use that as buffer for another year or even more. They will get a choice as to when to do the 12". Without Malaysia, they have to go once current Gresham is maxed out - no choice. But Malaysia is also a two edged sword. In downturns they are competition. I persume that whoever is doing Coreware at Gresham can go over to Malaysia and go for a lower price. Only condolense is LSI will get some royalty for that. That is why you do not see TSMC and UMC partnering - they even have tight non-discosures with customers as to the details of their process so customers can't just go to another fab for lower price. patrick