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To: SgtPepper who wrote (248)5/31/1999 1:07:00 PM
From: ahhaha  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 587
 
Let's take a look at your patzer's theory. You believe there is some advantage around expiration for option sellers. Amateur, I'll give you a clue, the advantage is on strike day.

You believe that someone large can control price and therefore fix it so options expire where the big boy wants it. The tail doesn't wag the dog even though the specialist has his own traders on the CBOE.

You believe that the short interest on puts and calls tells you something, or the volume. It tells you nothing because it is based on the theory that somebody big knows where stock prices are going or that heavy option buying in a given direction means uninformed public buy-to-open and therefore wrong. Tell me, how do you know who is initiating an option trade? You don't.

Sooner or later you will have to try to figure out what the dog is doing. Just like the option exchanges the stock exchange contains no information upon which to make a decision to buy or sell. Trading has no information. The action of trading tells you what others believe is going on fundamentally in the stock. That's all. So the only information you can get which has any value is earnings expectations and that's mostly all there is in this thread.