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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (18642)	5/31/1999 5:27:00 PM
From: patrick tang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Jock, hope you are right and I'm wrong on the peak - I never discriminate against a $. The later the peak comes, the higher I'll get to sell my stock for. Yes, it's much too early to time it to even guess to within +/- 3 months with any kind of accuracy. Discussions now serves to understand criteria on nailing down sell time later though. In a year or so, we'll be able to see much more clearly. BTW, licensing technology is rarely done with logic processing. For DRAMs, usually it's done only if the technology developer can get back a lion's share of the fab output. For the technology buyer, it's like mortgaging yourself for one generation in the hope that after one round, one will be self-substaining. LG never developed their own DRAM technology but got many generations of it from Hitachi. Hence on the last squeeze, the Korean government pushed them to sell out to Hyundai and not the other way around. The only logic licensing that I can readily recall is between IBM and Acer now. I bet you IBM did not let their technology out the door for cheap. I also bet you IBM saw the same thing that Wilf saw - they did not want to be in the position of either building the last 8" or the first 12". Can't be a winner either way. One other case I can think of was UMC gobbling up the Kuotech fab 2 when Kuotech could not produce the chips by themselves. UMC first talked licensing, then dropped the deal when they realized how bad a shape Kuotech was in, waited for the stock to go down, then later came back and bought up the fab for dirt cheap. This Kuotech #2 deal was probably the only time that I can think of in Taiwan that somebody lost money on semi. Yes, I hope that LSI got a really good deal on the agreement with Silterra. Waiting for this whole thing to unfold over the next two years will be like watching paint dry! I'm pretty sure that we've hit jackpot, but waiting for payday is going to take a lot of nail biting and patiance. patrick