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To: Bob Dobbs who wrote (34714)6/1/1999 6:24:00 AM
From: Richard Mazzarella  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116764
 
A few interesting cost and production stats: biz.yahoo.com

Everything's terrible? The bottom, a buy signal?



To: Bob Dobbs who wrote (34714)6/1/1999 9:01:00 AM
From: Ironyman  Respond to of 116764
 
Bob,,,,

My feeling is that for those items which have dropped price, the reason would be related to overproduction. The is no shortage of dollars chasing anything.

Tradesmen who were making 16-18 per hour last year are now making 20-25 and all I see is new vehicles everywhere!

Eric



To: Bob Dobbs who wrote (34714)6/1/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: ahhaha  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116764
 
Availability of money doesn't determine the price of other goods except in transient state short term. If their relative price falls, less will be created down to the demand rate as long as that rate can keep the price above the replacement rate. If it does, since the replacement rate has risen due to core component of replacement increase, the average price has to advance to above previous price once equilibrium in supply and demand is achieved. A rise in a core production cost causes an acceleration of Schumpeteran destruction and could be seen as a constructive force since it gets rid of all those frivolous things wealth creates. See Don Patinkin, Harvard, for details of the argument.

The inflation in the past centuries was so mild that it was below creeping. The brief periods of acceleration would be followed by equally brief periods of deceleration. There were no ubiquitous central banks to sustain the inflation. For the last 1000 years we have had slowly increasing inflation periods. Before that there were essentially none. Inflation comes from the excesses of rapid growth. It has only been in the last 50 years that the world has gotten the technological ability to growth rapidly. Since most countries in the world now have that ability, you can expect more inflation.

It is interesting you mention gold influx to Europe as a cause for inflation. Consider that if the gold price rises substantially the US becomes far more wealthy than all other nations. The US government then has more wherewithal to create currency and support loans since the reserve base has grown. If the FED utilized that wherewithal and flooded the economy with currency or the cost money dropped since it would be so available and rapid loan activity followed, either excess growth or excess currency would occur and we would be inflating. So gold price increase causes inflation. QED.