Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Booking Holdings (formerly Priceline) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: coachbobknight who wrote (1549)	6/2/1999 4:29:00 AM
From: B. A. Marlow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2743

Understand your (and Tom H.'s) position precisely, but demur. 1) "Overvaluation" will continue if results and new initiatives are convincing. 2) Management is strong; Richard Braddock (ex-Citibank) taking no prisoners. Walker is the "geek" of business process, runs nothing. Still, he's no flake; has a colorful and creative history, has filed something like 250 patents (22 of which support PCLN). 3) Assume you're correct that PCLN currently in distribution, but no different than many other tech/Net stocks and can turn around quickly. 4) You have no way of knowing if the patents are weak. You assume they must be weak because they're a new patent class and counter-intuitive. Either way, though, they'll slow down competition. And remember, PCLN's business is not dependent upon patent protection. 5) If PCLN files a secondary, what will the money be used for? Agree that secondaries tend to be misperceived by the Street (as unilaterally dilutive), but PCLN would use the money for new initiatives. Frankly, I'd like 'em to make some acquisitions, like ONSL and VERT (which they'd do for stock). 6) PCLN has deep-pocket backers. With Paul Allen/Vulcan, Nick Nicholas (TWX), Marshall Loeb, William "Kirk" Shatner and others in this thing, long-term support and great connections are a given. 7) Sell-side support, however suspect to you, is strong. So go ahead and play sector momentum, but don't be deceived. Not a single point of PCLN's retracement has anything to do with your or Tom's arguments. In fact, PCLN's holding up pretty well. If you think about it, you could have done better shorting many other Nets. Now tell me, what did you think of "Barron's" AMZN story? Presumably, you agree with Abelson & Co., but you have to admit there's a vendetta at work there. My take is that the article was shallow and inept, missing the point completely. MER's abrupt change of direction is a poster child for the failure of conventional wisdom. AMZN will triumph, MER will die a slow death (a good short?). (No position in AMZN or MER.) On the economic data and Fed: Not inflationary because what's not reflected is productivity. Thus, there's no wage inflation and limited producer pricing power. The FOMC will not raise rates for these and other reasons (gold at 20-year lows, foreign economies weak, trade deficit out of control, dollar way too strong against euro and yen, etc.). Rate hike already priced in, money on the sidelines will (must) come back. BAM