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To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (130212)	6/1/1999 7:25:00 PM
From: BGR	Respond to of 176387

Darrell, Today's NAPM data is equivalent to paying $3.00 for a Big Mac in January of 1998, $2.70 in July 1998, $2.20 in December in 1998, and $2.35 in May 1999. We're still off considerably from January 1998 prices. And commodity prices continue to suck with little end in sight for them. Excellent point. Also, it seems that oil price directions are changing, as well as CU and AL ... which are forward indicators. I believe that NAPM's as well as Alice Rivlin's comments today do not make it sound like a rate hike is a done deal. -BGR.