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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cacaito who wrote (10306)	6/2/1999 12:59:00 AM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 17367

Could be wrong but I no longer buy into the .25 or .50 cents per share if P III trial is not a success. BPI seems to be of too much interest to many to allow the company to be sold for $25,000,000. Remember Incy got over $7.5?? million for seven patents. XOMA has value for its' cell expression and humanization technology as well as its partnership with GNE. But in any case I really doubt the standard of care has been so vastly improved anywhere. As you have indicated several times this disease is a killer and the information about the 62 confirms this. All of those patients were in a hospital and the hospital was giving them their standard of care when they died. They would all count against the imaginary improved standard of care which has never been supported by any stratified data. But, I protest too much. The stock has been below $2 with all prospects go so if their best shot fails perhaps we see some replay of that but even worse.

To: Cacaito who wrote (10306)	6/2/1999 1:35:00 AM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 17367

When all the data is analyzed IMO the mortality rate for children with scores of 8-11 will be over 20% and for those with scores of 12-15 mortality will be over 30%. What do we know about the 62? There is no chance they received Neuprex because they were not enrolled and did not receive the experimental "drug" (placebo/BPI). I would not add these 62 to the 395 as Murphy does because the 395 includes the treatment arm. (his calculation produces a mortality of 20%). Splitting the groups in half, even while remembering your point that things are not so neat, means I would add the 62 to 198 to get a group of 260 with 79 deaths. This results in a mortality of 30% in the non treated arm against an artificially high 8% in the treatment group where 1/2 the deaths were simply assigned. Simplistic???? Yes, but I got to 33 or one short of the actual mortality, or two short of the target, using a similar simplistic calculation. No one should buy XOMA based on this simplistic approach. I have already done that for us and there is no need for you too to lose money!!! This is for entertainment purposes only and being able to say, " I told you so" if by luck I am correct or never referred to again if I am wrong. <g>