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To: dbblg who wrote (59774)	6/2/1999 12:17:00 AM
From: BGR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Ganesh, In a time of budget surplus, I find it hard to buy the argument of increased supply and in fact the supply is probably going to go down. As for demand, both the Yen and the Euro are in doldrums, as are the respective economies. I do agree that diminishing demand is a plausible situation; but has been for the past decade or so. The urge on the part of foreigners to finance the US trade deficit seems to be limitless. You know what I really think? Two possibilities: One, the bond market has no clue and suffers seriously from herd mentality. Just as in last Oct there was a flight to quality which was only partly derived of fundamental rationale, now there is a inflation scare. Two, the bond market doesn't buy the new-era argument to the point that it is almost religious. Hence, notwithstanding underlying data, inflation is a given for the bond market. I believe that the true picture is a combination of these two factors. -BGR.