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To: jim kelley who wrote (130346)	6/2/1999 2:04:00 AM
From: stock bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim, here's what I said: << The major problem is the fear of inflation, the Feds raising interest rates, and the jump in the long bond which today closed at 5.93%. >> I didn't say we are going to have inflation, I said the "fear" of inflation. Why do you think the long bond is closing in on 6%, and the market is so concerned about the Feds raising interest rates...if not at the next meeting, than later this year? Stock Bull PS: By the way, do you think a guy as smart as Rubin would say he is expecting to see inflation this year when he's leaving office on a real high note? He and Greenspan want to be known as the inflation killers.

To: jim kelley who wrote (130346)	6/2/1999 2:58:00 AM
From: exhon2004	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

jim: re >>I thought Rubin said that he did not expect any significant inflation to develop this year. I think I will go with his appraisal of the situation.<< I hope you're right because that's the side I'm betting on. Of the two types of inflation, cost push and demand pull, I don't see a clear pattern emerging for either of them. Labor costs are going up at maybe 4%, roughly matching productivity growth. The economics of oil do not bode well for sustained high prices. As for demand pull, two sectors that are most subject to it are autos and housing. Daimler/Chrylser actually cut prices, albeit by a minute amount. Thank you! global glut in auto capacity. Housing has shown inflation, but it won't take long for a >7.25 30yr rate to cool that off. Finally, if the inflation zealots are right, find me one that can explain why gold appears to be on an inexorable march to zero. Regards, Greg