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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: DownSouth who wrote (2421)6/2/1999 10:09:00 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Two articles of interest in the LA Times today. For ATHM fans:

latimes.com

For us Cisco buffs:

latimes.com



To: DownSouth who wrote (2421)6/2/1999 11:44:00 PM
From: Ausdauer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Links in the Value Chain: The Essential Features of a Digital Darkroom

This is the third installation of my investment case for flash memory and digital photography. The content of my discussion will follow the table below. I am also including links back to prior chapters so as to facilitate participation by thread members who may have missed earlier portions of this presentation.

Table of Contents
Message 9880779

CHAPTER ONE
Tornado Watch: The Unrealized Potential of Flash Memory in Digital Photography and Portable Consumer Electronics
Message 9878229

CHAPTER TWO
Discontinuous Innovation: The Fossilization of Kodak, Fuji and Agfa?
Message 9897772

CHAPTER THREE
Links in the Value Chain: The Essential Features of a Digital Darkroom
How the internet, electronic commerce & communication, and the concept of a family PC have created an ideal platform for digital photography and other portable consumer electronics.

Emphasizing the meaning of value in value chain is something that every discontinuous innovation must do. In doing so the innovation must both fundamentally disrupt the establishment of a favored technology and, at the same time, strenuously avoid disrupting the continuity of the user's daily life. This is best achieved if a killer application facilitates the disruptive forces of change while at the same time creating no ripples or wake that could rock the placid environment of the end-user.

The Internet as a Value Platform

Digital photography has enjoyed the inroads created by home computing and internet commerce & communication. In effect, these technologies created their own value platform sturdy enough to support the weight of evolving applications and services in an effortless and undisruptive manner. However, digital photography is not unique in this respect. For example, a technology offering great value which can be easily superimposed on this value platform is the concept of an on-line brokerage. Most consumers have the needed skills to operate and maintain the infrastructure (essentially a phone line and a PC) to allow the discount brokerages to disrupt the full-service market without exacting any cost on the end-user. Digital photography follows this paradigm. For many it represents a "killer application" which has matured in parallel with the maturation of internet services (ISP's) and the acceptance of the desktop PC as a standard home appliance.

The earliest individuals to benefit from this killer application were business people. Real estate agents could create a website where all of there offerings could be conveniently displayed and easily modified. Photojournalists could upload the story-of-the-day replete with color graphics. Insurance adjusters could visit a client and e-mail a comprehensive claim with photographic documentation on site. On-line auctions could be conducted with up-to-date color images. Following the lead of the business community, more entertaining uses were discovered. Hospitals could place pictures of each newborn on a site for patients' family members unable to visit in person. High School reunions could publish pictures of attendees on a hosted web site. Dating services could display portfolios viewed in the comfort of one's own home with abundant anonymity. And now yet another intangible form of value comes from enjoyment and personal satisfaction. This includes such things as photos embedded into e-mail items, family calendars with favorite snapshots, vivid birthday and Christmas cards, screen savers, and easily accessible digital photo albums (that take up no attic space whatsoever). Finally, value also comes in the form of immediacy (the 21st century version of Polariod film) and the freedom from having to drop off film at the local drug store or photo developer. Indeed, the concept of the Kodak Photomat Kiosk is antiquated and begging to be replaced. Digital photography fits the bill.

The value chain graphically represented on page 140 of our investment guide compartmentalizes the necessary set of products and services into three general categories. The product providers (the gorillas who produce the product), the service providers (integrators of the technology and curators of the sales channel), and the customers (you and me). You and me because digital photography appeals to the mass market comprised of the above average consumer. Similarly, if we were to fill in the generic blanks for the links which constitute the digital photography value chain we begin with the digital camera manufacturers. Because this market is not a proprietary market it occupies the box labelled "product". The technology which represents the purest form of a discontinuous innovation is flash memory. CompactFlash and other forms of flash memory represent THE FIRST LINK in the digital photography value chain. They are the enabling technologies which have represented the rate-limiting step in the formation of the value chain.

The critical observation that must be made is the fact that CompactFlash also represents THE LAST LINK in the value chain. As a consumer product created by the semiconductor industry this type of relationship is unprecedented. In essence, it is the first semiconductor which will likely become a household appliance with all the benefits of visibility in the consumer market place and the corresponding mass demand.

What will determine the force and dimension of this mass market demand? Simply stated, the cost of running and ease of maintaining a digital darkroom is, perhaps, the most important determining factor.

Adoption Complexity and the Digital Darkroom

The simplest, most economical and most streamlined form of a digital darkroom is a digital camera and a laptop computer. As long as the laptop has a PCMCIA expansion slot and a modem one is adequately equipped. The CompactFlash card (and any other form of removable flash memory) has been designed to fit into a type II PCMCIA slot and possesses "plug 'n' play" capability. Desktop PC users need a CompactFlash card reader or like device for "developing" their images. The CompactFlash card itself is reusable and, for all intents and purposes, inexhaustible. It represents a perpetual roll of both color and B&W film. Thus, the intrinsic value of such a card is inestimable. And by nature of its compatibility across several consumer electronic device platforms its value is incalculable.

Simply stated, it is the golden link at both ends of the value chain.

Ausdauer