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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: epicure who wrote (15639)	6/2/1999 6:24:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

X, quite correct. in fact, just in case it was missed by anybody, the last time sentiment was this bullish was in 1987. if the market were to move to new highs from here, i'd be very surprised. one should never underestimate the power of the mania though. the problem with such a mania is that it only becomes obvious in retrospect. i remember to have had doubts about the nikkei when it reached 35,000 and i was some 4,000 points early there. still, the evidence for an important top to either have formed already, or being very near, grows by the day. last weeks decline was very disquieting inasmuch as it happened on essentially no news. sure, the interest rate worries were paraded by the media, but they have to say something,right? the fact that the bullish consensus is rising to multi-year highs during a market decline is very disturbing. normally, the opposite occurs. normally, you would also find me arguing that the bear market in bonds and the renewed market focus on inflation are actually a slight positive, as something needs to be there to provide the wall of worry. the problem is that people seem not to be worried at all about this, as if it was natural to expect a market at record valuations to streak ever higher in spite of rising rates. regards, hb