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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KM who wrote (15670)	6/2/1999 10:22:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Truff, i know; Consensus Inc., which is another service surveying futures traders also records a slight week-on-week decline in bullish consensus from 57% to 51%, still way above the level considered to represent an oversold condition(i remember it was at 19% on august 22 last year, which prompted Stanley Druckenmiller(right hand of G. Soros) to proclaim a bullish stance in a CNBC interview; the dow promptly went down almost 1,000 points in the following week). normally it is very bearish for the intermediate term when big traders are net long for two cftc reports in a row, which hasn't been the case lately(last time i remember was april 98). still, i see the futures related data in conjunction with the rest, and the bullishness or bearishness of the market vane and consensus inc. surveys are mainly a result of the trend-following systems employed by most commodity trading advisors. the SPX plummets through it's 50-day EMA, and presto they turn a tad more bearish. i assume though that being in the smart-money camp is a matter of survival for futures traders. looking at various commodities, the consensus in some of them has been in 'oversold' territory for a long time and they just kept on plunging. regards, hb PS:those figures on cocoa and cotton look mighty tempting though<g>