To: Tomas who wrote (45820 ) 6/3/1999 7:38:00 AM From: Tomas Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
North Sea must adapt to survive, say economists Aberdeen Press & Journal, June 3 SUSTAINING UK offshore oil production levels medium term depends to a great extent on new fields, the development of which is highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations, Aberdeen University research shows. A big reduction in the cost of getting a barrel of oil out of the ground is believed crucial if North Sea activity is to sustained at high levels. As it is, per barrel new field development costs have been halved compared with the early 1980s. The findings of economists Professor Alex Kemp and Linda Stephen reinforce the widely held view that the North Sea is a mature energy province that will have to continually reinvent itself to cope with low oil prices, shrinking new development opportunities and competition from other areas of the world. As fields being found and opened up get smaller and the loss of economies of scale becomes more acute, so more innovative, cost-reducing methods will be needed. "A key finding of the study is that the level of oil production in the medium term depends to a very large extent on the development of new fields whose viability is highly price sensitive," say Kemp and Stephen. Basically, this means the UK cannot sustain current high output levels for any more than just a few years more. In essence, if oil prices remain around the $14 per barrel mark, then the UK will peak next year at 3.2million barrels per day, falling to 2.7million bpd by 2005 and 1.5million bpd in 2013. But $18 crude may mean 3million bpd even in 2005 and 2million in 2013. If prices slumped back to March levels again and stay around $10, this would spell real trouble, with UK output collapsing to just 500,000bpd around 2013. The duo repeat earlier warnings that the Atlantic Margin will not deliver enough production to compensate for medium term North Sea decline. pressandjournal.co.uk