My posts are mostly written from Pakistan, Paris is my summer abode, I am preparing to leave rather I was booked on 2nd June however I will now leave for my cricket soon to London. I enjoy my forays in to unknown, it rarely matters to me if I have audience response or no, rather seclusion makes me a better thinker I work a shade harder to bring something new that adds value. In the process out of thousands of banal thoughts talking loud results in sometime streak of geniuses, I keep talking loud to search some pearls of wisdom. IDEA is that stage to think loud. I see markets as an extension of living experiences the better you analyze various phenomenon's the sharper you become in markets, but you got to back test see if your analogies work. Improvising your skills is the name of the game.
I do take a lot of pride in breaking this distance through cyber space, I think this is a unique manifestation of global 'togetherness', this distance thing relevance is highlighted by Adam Smith in his 'Wealth of Nations' he refers to discovery of East Indies ( through cape of Good Hope) and Americas as major turning points for global trade. If finding routes and discovery of the world we lived in brought centuries earlier push to global trade. We are now entering a new age we are at new cross road where global togetherness and neural connectivity opens new vistas. The TA and the complex strategies of trading are ill-prepared to address these issues of market direction, it is all about intelligent investing and need to be informed of global issues. I take great honor to introduce as host issues which matter to our daily investment decisions, posts which are define intelligent moves.
My thread is not about market trading alone rather market trading is an offshoot of our quest for understanding complex issues, trading is a product of our unquenchable thirst of knowing the reasons for a move.
I take Accompora's, Jerry Favors and Kurlack , CNBC's or Barons as anti- thesis of market emotions and sentiments. None of them, I dare challenge them can write a column like I do every day and forecast with surety the outcome at the end of the day. Even if they can do it on thread like Idea where we live and thrive on quiet interaction they will die of boredom their accomplishments will be hardly talked about their failures will be brandished. ‘What is their in it for me' also kill a lot of prospective writers.
Last time Barons at 7000 wrote that cover article on similarities of DOW with 1929, I threw them a challenge and wrote DOW a steal at 8000, this was favorite quote of someone who happened to be a bear but at 11400 I did not go back and told him how about this DOW a steal at 8000. Some other examples, I was for intervention of HK monetary authorities in HK to kill the double play, Economist got it all wrong . WSJ Economist opposed the intervention since they are pro-hedge fund biased, they thought that intervention will cost free market of Hong Kong and destroy the peg. Buried in these 26000 plus posts are my articles which favored Treasury Secretary Tsang actions in Hong Kong. Now with a benefit of hindsight we can see that hedge funds were creating imbalances which could only be fought through fire. Tooth for a tooth policy left LTCM and Quantum or Tiger Funds without a bite. These same WSJ and FT or Economist were after Malaysia. The country was ridiculed for imposition of exchange controls it is now known beyond any doubt that imposition of exchange controls helped the whole region from claws of hedge funds. The double play of HK was to replayed big time in ASEA. They were ready to break Ringgit and that would taken Bhatt and Won and Rupiah, once after controls these guys ran for the cover ASEA as a whole prospered. IDEA again was on the right side of debate as we don't have likes and dislikes, my reporters (gg) are not paid ‘dining agents' of Tigers and LTCM's. I don't want rumor based money I make money out of intelligent forecasting and I do it with honor and integrity. I go behind what is called a hyped based news.
We were again on the right side, from 6000 to 11400 we have fought tooth and nail every inch we have conquered from these ever green bears. On Idea you will mind a minority view, when everyone forecasted destruction we were long that is how we are such a successful thread. Live and kicking.
I will make sure that Idea give the ‘ever green bears' the due they have always received on daily basis and a final coup de grace when market reverses after this correction that will finally satisfies their ingrown itch to short. Deflation/ Inflation theorist are out in monsoon season once again, I am sure they will be short when market turns, they look at charts which every other guy on the street looks at, they no little about trading for last three years they have same story of gloom they have been bears and persistently remain so. For me it is opportunity every day.
To accept laurels of calls which never really worked is something I would like to shun, however lie to give the devil its due when we called it right.. Look at yesterday we had this severest of fall in the morning to DOT 528 and NDX 1987, I said go long at 1980, the bears were on opening saying ‘a dead cat bounce is in offing on opening' they were long on opening were stopped out at 1990 area by the time they issued the short call the market rebounded from 1987 test on NDX to close at 2074, I know what this kind of forecasting means to an account.. I could see that trap at 528 on DOT and NDX 1987 I was wondering if anyone will reverse.
We were short on opening around my 12.16 post about contrary trade 1.00 PM was the time of rebound the time we were covering for the rebound short term operators were preparing for the slide all because they have no idea what SOX is doing, and how much it has the potential to pull the market up. Index watching is like a race, it is horses for courses, you need to look at the right index to get the feel, by the way if Rut stays above 430 the big fall will not come it will only if RUT breaks. Although this has nothing to do with market cap rather sentiment change will be reflected by RUT. When SOX was up and it crossed my 382 resistance it was time to wake up. Without multiple index watch DOW is not good enough an indicator, we here mix SPM NDX IXIX DOT PSE SOX and BKX last is RUT, we know the change all little too early. For me CSCO EMC INTC LU ALTR TXN MOT MER C show good prognosis. Likewise CMGI AMZN AOL look good for further rebound from oversold positions, I will be out of them below a close of 550 but maintain trading long calls as far as index stays above 550.
After that Barrons of revisiting 1929 article when the market roared up to 11000 they had no apologies for sensational financial yellow journalism, this is kind of world we live in. Now they wrote AMAZON. Bomb we bombed them yesterday with a 14 point move, AMZN will surprise a lot of Barrons readers. I make my money and get out but love to see that these guys have no idea what they talk about, 90 out of 100 times when I see something on CNBC my mind is working opposite.
Global trade will take new dimensions with death of distance. Difficult to comprehend if one is prisoner of circumstances and his vision is restricted between Atlantic on one side and Pacific on other. In this new world ‘We fight but are afraid to fight, the days of 100 year wars are over, tyrants and despots have no place world wide'. Money cannot be hidden and Ponzi schemes collapse as information moves at speed of light. Even corruption and ill gotten wealth has now limited application one can be wealthy but very poor as accounts are frozen. Examples of such ‘poverty' are people like Suharto was trying to channel his 9 billion from Swiss banks to Austria this was noticed by Fed and Time ran the most damaging story, similarly Saddam's investment's and Milosivic accounts in Cyprus are under threat of freeze. Money when it changes to specks of electronic dust leaves a dirty trail behind. Ms. Bhutto now a convict and a indicted person in Swiss learnt it hard way when her ‘grafts and commissions spree' as a ruler of our impoverished land spewed itself from coffers of her lawyers office.
In this world corporate propensity to transfer price hikes is limited, the production flies to most optimum places, cartelization does not work, oil as I have said many a times as it rallied has no course but downward course to run, at 48 OSX was a buy when no one wanted it at 81 we sold it to cover at 72, we will sell it again at 82.. This is a world of ‘information based investment' and multi facet watching of different indexes domestically and globally. Idea is a thread committed to this kind of objective learning, we learn we talk and grow in this global village. The challenges ahead are immense the knowledge we have in our hand is limited therefore we keep emphasizing on more knowledge this heart wants it more, that is the only nirvana knowledge based investments.
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