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Technology Stocks : IATV-ACTV Digital Convergence Software-HyperTV -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: art slott who wrote (4458)	6/3/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: Mike Fredericks	Respond to of 13157

The 97 Fox rollout would have been analogue and one county. One county? You mean one region (Fox Sports SW?) The SEC filings all said Fox Sports SW, not just one county. Analog, I grant you, would have been a problem. An unsuccessful mini rollout in 97 could have been the death knoll. Any unsuccessful rollout would be bad. Had they rolled out in 1997 and had it been a bad rollout, then yeah, we wouldn't be here now. I grant you that. But why then did they feel the need to print in their SEC filings that they were going to roll out in 1997? Then 1998? Then 1999? Samuels et al had to know that if they rolled out in '97 it would have been analog. So they should have just said "we're waiting for digital, meanwhile we're developing hypertv" But that's not what they did. They just kept postponing the rollout. Actv of 99 looks like a huge category killer compared to the developemental Actv in 97. So long as it is ACTV of 1999 and not ACTV of 2000. If ACTV waits until 2000 to roll out, there's going to be an uphill battle. WGAT will be up to 200K customers, MSFT will be talking about their upcoming summer offering which will cause content developers to hesitate (never underestimate the power of Microsoft's FUD). I think that a rollout in 3Q '99 would be a major major plus. If they get the product out in 3Q then this company has tremendous upside... MSFT will say "we'll have a product out in a year" but a year's a long time and people won't wait that long once they've seen what ACTV can do. If ACTV, in their 2Q report to the SEC state that "Rollout should be expected 4Q99 or 1Q00" then we're screwed. If everything's 3Q99, and I will state clearly here that the company has not said anything recently other than 3Q99 is the date, then we're fine. The stock will go past 20 on news containing a definite rollout date. By the time it rolls out it will be even higher. Without a definite date announced, I think there's a ceiling on the stock keeping it from running too high. If Sep 30 rolls around and we have rolled out already, stock should be mid-20's easy. If Sep 30 rolls around and what we're hearing is "4Q99-1Q00" then stock will be under 10. All my predictions of course. -Mike