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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (15742)	6/3/1999 11:30:00 AM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

American Spirit: I think, not quite yet... Regards, LG

To: American Spirit who wrote (15742)	6/3/1999 12:38:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

AS, let me present a counterpoint to your assertions. the end of the war(if and when it comes) has little or no effect on gas prices; the decisive fundamental factors are OPEC discipline(or the lack thereof) and a possible rebound in Asian demand. whether the Fed will or won't move will only be clear once more economic data are out; so far, everything seems to argue for at least a 1/4 point hike. the biggest amount of cash on the sidelines is in Japan, which has a 30% or so savings rate. it doesn't fuel the stock market though; cash on the sidelines sometimes remains there. the growth stocks you describe as cheap are only cheap when viewed in the context of their recent extremes when they were at all time highs. historically, they're all still uncomfortably expensive, especially considering the recent rise in rates. furthermore most are a shambles technically, having broken several levels of perceived support. no-one will dispute the long term viability of the drugs; the question is: should they be bought now? there is still too much residual bullishness associated with most of these stocks, as call open interest outweighs put open interest by far on the majority of the drugs (and techs,i might add,DELL being the prime example)in spite of their dismal performance. and finally, there were 5 weeks of deterioration, but certainly no panic. in fact the majority of market commentators seems ominously relaxed about the current downturn. you will recognize the panic when it hits. regards, hb