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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Magic RN who wrote (48276)	6/3/1999 11:47:00 AM
From: Sarkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90042

Ooops....fortunatly my edit limit had not run out.....typo S/B 4 3/8 purchase price on JACO

To: Magic RN who wrote (48276)	6/3/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: len bt	Respond to of 90042

tahoe, beautiful place . was there 10 years ago. considered buying a little weld shop near heavenly. have a great time. sure brings back good memories. ran thru cal. couple of trips 2- weeks each. carmel, san f., montery, yoset., the big trees,squa,mamoth mt., did some hiking around tahoe. len

To: Magic RN who wrote (48276)	6/3/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: Researcher	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 90042

AG (agco) for the people who are holding this one.Here is some more information to add to the pile of data. << The Grazing Field Some Options .AGKB AG November 10 Call $3 1/2 (5/28/99) Farm equipment?? perhaps. True farm commodity prices are soft and there has been a drop in crop exports to ASIA. Supply is also seen as rising this summer. All this doesn't sound too great for farm equipment stocks, so why are we talking about it? For one the term "contrarian" comes to mind. Any turn around in the farm commodities sector and these stock should get a boost. Also they are depressed already, taking into effect most, if not all, of any negative news and/or reports that have come out. Let's add to that a company that is trading both below book value and below sales, and we come up with a stock worth checking into a bit further. AGCO is a global manufacturer and distributor of agricultural equipment and related replacement parts. They are the third-largest manufacturer in the US. AGCO is know for offering basic equipment, often with competitors' technological advances, at lower prices. Being acquisitive and aggressive, they receive half of its sales in the European market. AGCO buys up overseas manufacturers, including tractor makers in Europe and South America. Which brings us to the more important part. How are their earnings and revenues? Well they could be better, to tell the truth. Their revenues have increased over the years from 1993-1997, but had dropped down a bit in 1998. Earnings also reacted similarly over the same periods. EPS didn't move much though from 1994-1997 jumping about a bit, then dropping in 1998. Recent earnings have actually been worse; however, estimated earnings for the current quarter and year seem to be pointing back in the correct direction. I know what you must be thinking. A good balance sheet still does not make up for a badly performing company with respect to earnings. And of course you are correct. Earnings are lagging. This we believe has already been priced into the stock. A turnaround in earnings seems to be underway also. Robert Friedman at Standard & Poor's has recently raised AGCO to a "Strong Buy" from "accumulate". With respect to their Balance sheet, they are selling at significant discounts to everyone else; from P/B to P/CF. I know, you still want that extra something that says why this is something that should be really interesting. Okay; the price is low. (Not good enough, huh?) It has been lower though. So why is it a little higher now? On May 17th, New Holland agreed to acquire Case, another big name among farmers, for $4.3 billion. This deal awakened investors to other possible targets in the struggling industry. Some analysts and money professionals, say AGCO could be next on the list. One Investment Banker is rumored to claim that with AGCO trading at a deep discount to book value, it has become an attractive target. He claims that in view of the hefty price that New Holland is paying for Case, AGCO is a bargain. The rumors say that a foreign conglomerate is seriously considering making a $24 a share offer. This suitor is said to be a well-known company in Europe engaged in the automotive, transportation, agriculture, and construction businesses. AGCO stock is down more than 57% so far this year, has become vulnerable to a takeover. Analysts seem to be slowly raising their ratings based on improving fundamentals. Sound interesting enough yet? Well the November 10 calls are selling around $3 1/2. Talk about leverage. Of course all the risk comes along with these options. For this reason we chose ones slightly in-the-money, with enough time for either economic changes or takeover offers to play through. Interestingly enough, the price of the shares hardly moved after Business Week came out with an article mentioning the takeover rumors. All and all, it looks like a good opportunity to once again us options to leverage what looks like a good (special) situation. >> This is a good pick from Tim ,it's just going to take some time to play out. Trading for profit Good investing Researcher