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To: Lee who wrote (130735)6/3/1999 1:17:00 PM
From: Bill France  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
RTQ...DELL UP 1/4

OB



To: Lee who wrote (130735)6/4/1999 9:20:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
INSTANT VIEW - May nonfarm payrolls up 11,000

Lee:
You seen any opinions from pundits on this?
==================

NEW YORK, June 4 (Reuters) - The following are comments from economists after the U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payroll employment rose 11,000 while the unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in May.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.4 percent.

Economists surveyed by Reuters predicted, on average, that nonfarm payrolls would gain 216,000 and unemployment would be 4.3 percent. Average hourly earnings were seen up 0.3 percent.

DAVID RESLER, MANAGING DIRECTOR, NOMURA SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL INC. "A weak payroll creation number does not necessarily indicate a weakening in labor market conditions but rather that there is no longer an available supply of workers looking for jobs. This is to be expected with an unemployment rate at 4.2 percent.

''The surprise is that, despite the apparent sign of improvement in manufacturing that we saw in the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM), manufacturing employment is still weak.''

PHIL HILL, ECONOMIST, BRIEFING.COM: ''That's a very good number. The negative earnings number was definitely countered by the payroll number. It was the lowest payroll increase since January '96. The market was expecting 215. Given the mixed nature of this report, the Fed is going be on hold until the CPI (Consumer Price Index). Now even moreso they'll have to wait to see what happens in the CPI. I don't think a rate increase is a foregone conclusion. I don't think they've made a decision now.''

(Warning: part of the article may be missing at this point.)

DAVID SLOAN, SENIOR ECONOMIST, 4CAST LTD:

''It's obviously weaker than expected partially offset by the upward revision in the previous two months. With the average hourly earnings strong and the unemployment rate low, the labor market is so tight they couldn't find the workers to hire.''

''The pick-up in average earnings and the fall in the unemployment rate reflect the tightness of the labor market. I wouldn't conclude the economy is slowing. It may be difficult to find the workers.''

''I suppose, on balance, this report would marginally reduce the prospect of a (Fed) tightening. I think the economy is still strong and despite the rise in average hourly earnings, inflation is subdued. This is a slightly erratic number. The labor market is still tight. If jobs growth is slowing because it is hard to find workers, that is bad for wages.''

DAVID JONES, CHIEF ECONOMIST, AUBREY G. LANSTON & CO.

''The fact we've seen strong demand growth, an increasingly tight labor market, reflected in the declining unemployment rate to 4.2 percent and accelerating average hourly earnings point to a Fed tightening move at the upcoming meeting on June 29 and 30.''

''I don't think this increases the Fed's urgency but these numbers are consistent with a Fed tightening move in June. I don't think this changes the underlying pattern of strong demand growth and growing demand pressures.''

''Payrolls are hard to interpret. We're getting to such a tight labor supply that there might not be that many workers.''