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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (45859)	6/3/1999 3:50:00 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

These OPEC boys are sure bullish on the price of crude. What will compliance of over 90% do to crude stocks around the world. Bull, I think OPEC is sounding cocky because they can count. They must have access to far more accurate world supply/demand figures than we do and I think they see a considerable supply shortfall emerging. EIA currently has OPEC producing 28.9 MMBD in this qtr and with non-OPEC around 44 MMBD was forecasting S/D equilibrium around 73 MMBD during this quarter. We now have OPEC at 26.33 MMBD for April and 25.96 MMBD for May. I've seen nothing to indicate any significant rise in non-OPEC output with most news indicating a possible small decline. I've seen nothing to indicate a demand shortfall with a slow but steady increase the more likely scenario. Unless I'am missing something, supply is approx 70 and demand is approx 73. That's a big gap and not likely to be quickly closed by cheating or non-OPEC increases or slackening demand. I sure would like to find some confirmation of current world supply/demand in the media but all you get is simplistic crap about oil gluts and API stats. EIA should be generating some new forecasts about world supply/demand in the next few days. Unless they are very sluggish in responding to changing conditions (verrrry possible in a gov't agency<g>), we should see big reductions in OPEC output forecasts and I don't see how it will be made up. John