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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (515)6/4/1999 2:27:00 AM
From: kas1  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 684
 
> If the market was really efficient, we'd never see
> stock market crashes, super bull runs or bear markets
> like the 70s.

That is incorrect.

A market can only be efficient with respect to investors' expectations of the future. When investors' expectations of the future change, an efficient market will change correspondingly -- including bubbles and crashes. Their existence does no damage to the efficient markets hypothesis. Read Malakiel's book if you haven't already.

The ex-ante expectation of ADR dumping is exactly one such expectation of the future. The weak version of efficient markets claims that if most/all investors know about the upcoming dumping, it is factored into the price already. The strong version of efficient markets says that even if only one person knows about the dumping, it is factored into the price already (because that person will exploit her informational advantage and short-sell to those who don't know about the dumping).

Feeling just slightly pedantic this evening. :-)