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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. De Paul who wrote (8037)	6/3/1999 6:32:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

OT Ken, Go back and look at the deal. T got more than subscribers. But for arguments sake lets look at the subscribers.... If you take a look you'll find that Media One "owns" 8.4M domesitic subscribers and has access to another 11.5M. Internationally they have access to 17M subscribers and 3.5M for ROW for a total potential subscriber base of about 40M. (It's CMCSK that's paying T $4500 for their 2M subscribers. perhaps something go lost in the translation?) The deal which includes about $32B in stock and $18.7B in cash less the $3.37B which CMCSK will pay for 2M subscribers nets out to something like $47B...do the math - that's about $1000/subscriber. Now look at UMG's profitability. Alone - just selling tv services they are neting $1.5B annually. Look at the telephony providers... SBC made $4.2B, USW $1.5B, BEL $3.22B, GTE $3.26B. Get the picture yet? Now look at the nacent portal business. YHOO, MSN, XCIT, they're all begining to turn in profits. They're not big yet but they're getting there. If T were to purchase a portal, sell telephony service (which as I said was a give away to get market share at first), sell internet access and associated advertising....to 60%+ of the U.S. market and thier subscribers in Europe and ROW........... get the picture yet? If you're looking for instant gratification this deal is not where it's at, but long term T is making all the right moves. $100B+ (for UMG, TWX, a few smaller guys, and some infrastructure is chump change compared to the return. Combine the projected profits of cable, telephony, internet, etc. together figure a 20%- 25% market share (Armstrong's number) and you'll get a better perspective on the AT&T model. OG