Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (15833)	6/3/1999 11:19:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

BULLISH FORECAST --- ENTER AT OWN PERIL... WEEKLY CHART TREND: Topping at DOW 12916. DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Topping and lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 6/3 H; 6/8 L TURN: 6/14 L TURN: 7/99 H DAY TRADER'S STRATEGY: Sell 1303 with a 1313 stop. Exit market on close. SWING TRADER'S STRATEGY: Sell 1303 and 1308 with a 1326.50 stop. (06/03) DAY TRADER'S SUMMARY: Wednesday's late rally turned hourly stochastics back up and created a mixed picture. Patterns off the low at 1278 suggest an early pullback toward 1292 and an eventual push toward 1303. This would complete the falling wedge pattern that has been going on the last few days. The DOW still looks like it could hit the 10650-10675 region. There may be an early buy in the 1292 region, looking for a quick push to 1301 and then eventually 1303. Once we hit 1303 we will be inclined to sell. Worst upside on this rally appears to be the 1308 region. We are still more inclined to expect a breakdown to the 1250 region if we end up stopping on the upside at the 1308 region. (06/03) It may take until Thursday to reach DOW 10650-10675 before we get a push toward at least DOW 10330 and possibly 10300. That may happen by June 8, with a secondary low by June 11-14, and from there we should start a bounce back toward at least 10920 into the summer. In looking at the patterns on the DOW, even with a 725-800 point fall, which was needed for a 4th wave to match the Nov. 23-Dec. 11 fall, we still need one more new high. That may mean a head-and-shoulders high for the S & P cash at around the 1350 region. Even if we bottom by as late as June 14, we could take until late July or early August to make a secondary high or a divergent high on the DOW. CYCLES: Our original work, before we second guessed it, suggested weakness after May 22. We had back tested this cycle, and in 1987 it did not hurt the market the way it has done so far. We still think a secondary high will manifest in July so we are not feeling like we totally missed the boat for shorts but we are disappointed that we did not stick with our original thinking. LONGER-TERM: If the S & P breaks further, it may take until as late as June 11-June 14 to complete the downside pattern toward the 1245 region on the S & P cash. We still appear likely to get a rally off of there into July and it could take us back to the 1350 region on the S & P cash. If by some miracle we hold S & P cash 1280, then I suspect that we could still make new highs but the chances are only around 5%. OEX NOTES: (06/03) Stand aside. OPTIONS TRADERS: We recommend that you switch to trading mini contracts on the S & P since options are so unforgiving. If you choose options, make sure you evaluate delta decay of options, manage your money and buy options that have enough time in them and do not trade against the major weekly chart trend. INTRADAY SERVICES now in effect: QUICK-TRADES HOTLINE: updated at 8:20 am and hourly from 9:30 am-2:30 pm CDT. Now contains more commentary at $4.95 PER CALL. Call 1-800-788-2796 for details. S & P COMMENTARY LINE: Updated with pre-opening comments at 8:20 and at 10:35 am, 12:35 pm, and 2:00 pm; more detailed and priced quarterly. SEPT. T-BONDS WEEKLY CHART TREND: Bottoming. DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Volatile. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 6/3 H TURN: 6/14 TURN: 8/99 H SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Exit shorts 115.09. Add shorts at 116.23 mit with a 117.07 stop. NOTE: You may want to get out of the current short at breakeven if you do not want to risk it to the 117.07 region and sit through the report. (06/03) The market may be quiet before the employment report and it is looking like we may make a minor high. It appears that we are headed toward the 116.24-116.28 region, and as long as we stay below 117.00, we are likely to hit the 115.07 region by late Friday or early Monday. We came very close to the minimum weekly chart target on Wednesday so hopes for 114 by June 14 may be pressing it so we will keep on eye on this market as we try to squeeze the last few drops out. OVERALL: (5/17) We completed new research and the latest cycle low for bonds is the week of June 14 even though the earliest weekly chart low is due by the end of the week. Once bonds bottom in late May, we expect an 8-point rally back to the 122-124 region into around July 19. The last deflation cycle is due to bottom around July 17 and we expect that we will be starting a multi-year inflation cycle. First target for bonds as early as November is probably the 99.10 region. T-BONDS INTRADAY COMMENTARY LINE NOW AVAILABLE: Updated 8:15 am, 10:40 am, and 12:40 pm. Call 1-800-788-2796 for details. marketweb.com