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To: GST who wrote (60310)	6/3/1999 8:21:00 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

On the other hand, if AG hikes aggressively he can still flatten the yield curve and send the signal that he is not 'behind the curve'. With due respect for your judgement and intelligence, you were wrong before to suggest that the level of the long bond matters more than the shape of the yield curve. What matters is the shape of the yield curve because that is what AG is managing and that is what the bond market will use to gauge how high rates must go to cool the economy. << Gst i agree what your saying here about the yield curve's importants, and i also know that you are holding puts betting on this flatten yield curve to happen so from one bull to another bear i do think AG will hold rates steady and let the bond market float as is with maybe the 30 yr. moving to 6.25 tops for this yr. Right now the yield curve is in a normal position which is normally the average. I don't see AG rising rates for reasons William talked about. One months of inflation data don't make a trend. CRB index, intermediate-term trend has lost upside momentum and turned neutral with potential for a 183.00 - 191.60 range. On a long-term basis, the trend continues to be down; a move through 198.96 would be necessary for a reversal of downside momentum. Good luck to both of us.