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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lymond who wrote (61386)	6/3/1999 10:32:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 132070

The debt is extreme. Negative savings--unheard of (as far as I know) ever before in this country. For this week, both Trim Tabs and AMGdata report modest inflows of new money into stocks. The fed figures are remaining roughly the same as recently, though there is a high rate for M1 that I do not understand. but m2 and M3 are sticking at levels that are not very inflationary, despite what the day to day Fed operations may seem to indicate. But given the huge inflation of equities, even a modest leveling out of credit growth might have a marked effect, lowering market prices.

To: Lymond who wrote (61386)	6/4/1999 12:30:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

John, I strongly disagree. The data I have from the National Income and Product Accounts ( NIPA'S) show much more extreme credit growth. Total borrowing and lending in the credit markets $2.1 trillion in 1998 an increase of 45% over 1997. In 1929 $2 of debt was added for each $1 of GDP growth we are now running almost $3 of debt growth for every dollar of GDP growth. The current excesses are at least as bad likely worse than the 20's IMO. To make matters worse the money center banks have derivatives exposure exceeding their capital by great multiples. the experts tell us not to worry they are hedged but in the event of a big move the counterparty may not be solvent. We also have the asset backed securities market where credit growth seems to be limited only by demand. Mike