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To: KHS who wrote (10139)6/4/1999 1:28:00 AM
From: ahhaha  Respond to of 29970
 
You can be confident that we will be in recession if the FED has to allow interest rate to rise more than three times. The market bottoms at the beginning of a recession, so it isn't important to know what or why the economy recesses, but it is important to realize recession or slowing is just as important as growth and expansion. The FED will fight the tendency to recess and thereby exacerbate the degree of the recession. This is called pretense to knowledge. You know it's happening when the fed funds rate wants to rise but FED won't let it. They supply money at the margin to prevent a dearth state in availability of interbank funds from developing. This keeps economy boiling. They are sparing us from pain and providing the gasoline that we will throw on the fire in order to put it out.