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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tom rusnak who wrote (46111)	6/3/1999 11:52:00 PM
From: John Graybill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Another good catch, Tom. I like the part where she says that Micron will have a share of the Rambus market similar to its share of the rest of the DRAM market, even though Micron has officially given the finger to Rambus technology. Her "12-month price target of $100" is down to about nine months, I believe. Oops, if you look closely, this time she didn't mention anything about 12 months, did she. :-)

To: tom rusnak who wrote (46111)	6/4/1999 10:25:00 AM
From: Fabeyes	Respond to of 53903

...from the Q&A: No new technology can match the current low cost of DRAMs..... She needs to do some MAJOR homework.

To: tom rusnak who wrote (46111)	6/4/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Tom, those were great questions. Can Micron meet EPS expectations with DRAM prices so low, and have DRAM prices started to stabilize? Mona Eraiba: We do not believe that this time is different for the DRAM market. It is still a cyclical market, but Micron has moved into the position of top supplier; in previous cycles, it was an also-ran. Expectations are very depressed as a result of the weak prices. We also believe that all the bad new is already reflected in Micron stock. Prices have stabilized over the last few days, but we don't know yet whether or not this stability will be maintained. If the bad news is already discounted in the stock price, why did you dodge the EPS question? IMHO the correct answer to the "will MU meet the consensus" question is "no". If the consensus is 0.08 - no. If the consensus is 0.00 - no. If the consensus is -0.05 - possible, but unlikely. If they were interviewing Diogenes (whose legendary domicile of a wooden tub has recently been equipped with a low-end HP Pavillion...even dead Greek philosophers have to keep up with the times) he probably would have written something like: "If you're talking about consensus numbers around 0.08-0.09, of course not. Frankly if the low estimate is -0.05, they'll be lucky to make that. Granted, the analyst community has access to information the home viewer doesn't, but the simple fact is that the 19 or so analysts who make up the consensus number are not the only persons capable of running a pro forma P&L based on some educated guesses. What the home viewer looses in terms of precision, he or she gains in terms of timeliness, as there is a historical lag between the reality that drives assumptions and the assumptions that drive the models that come together to form the consensus number that everyone is overly pre-occupied with. The home viewer shouldn't be psyched out by the word "model". If the home viewer works in finance or accounting, they probably have done more complex "modeling" in their day jobs than most of these so-called experts. If the home viewer is uncomfortable with the prospect of attempting a first cut at a pro forma, he or she is encouraged to call his neighbor who works in financial planning over at the waste disposal facility and offer him a case of beer in exchange for an hour or two of his time." No wonder Alexander wished he were Diogenes! Her responses are funny. Maybe even deep down Mona wishes she were Diogenes <g> Good trading, Tom