To: transmission who wrote (358 ) 6/4/1999 3:50:00 AM From: SteveG Respond to of 1860
WCII: MILLENNIUM II--FREE LD OR FREE WEB-HOSTING, AND IT'S ALL ON-NET--STRONG BUY Bankers Trust Research/BT Alex. Brown Research Bo Fifer,Jeffrey Hines June 03, 1999 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- WINSTAR COMMUNICATIONS INC. [WCII] "STRONG BUY" Millennium II--Free LD Or Free Web-Hosting, And It's All On-Net --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- Date: 06/03/1999 EPS 1998A 1999E 2000E Price: 57.63 1Q (2.51) (3.72)A (3.10) 52-Wk Range: 58 - 10 2Q (2.77) (3.38) (2.99) Ann Dividend: 0.0 3Q (2.83) (3.18) (2.67) Ann Div Yld: 0.00% 4Q (3.80) (3.05) (2.41) Mkt Cap (mm): 4,459 FY(Dec.) (11.89) (13.34) (11.17) 3-Yr Growth: FY P/EPS NM NM NM CY EPS (11.89) (13.34) (11.17) Est. Changed No CY P/EPS NM NM NM --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- Industry: COMMUNICATIONS Shares Outstanding(Mil.): 77.378 Return On Equity (1998) : 0.0% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- HIGHLIGHTS: --WinStar announced a major marketing program--Project Millennium II--this morning (3-Jun) as part of its continuing effort to drive on-net penetration and gross margin expansion. --A NEW MILLENNIUM: Recapping the original Millennium plan, customers who signed a three year contract with WinStar for local, long distance, and intra-LATA toll services received free local service for 1 year and approximately a 30% discount on services relative to their old provider. There are two flavors of Millennium II, which takes that same concept and applies it to different services for new customers who sign up between now and August: i. LONG-DISTANCE: Sign a three year deal for local, LD and intra-LATA toll services, receive 1 year of free long distance, both domestically and internationally (up to $35/line/month and just $0.089/minute thereafter) --OR-- ii. DATA: Sign a three year deal for Internet access and web hosting services and get 18 months of free web hosting. As with the original Millennium program, new customers must cover all installation costs (among other up-front fees designed to lower the cost of acquiring new subscribers), and Millennium II customers will receive "only" a 10% discount on services in the out years. --TAKING ADVANTAGE OF NEW NETWORKS: Clearly, without the deal WinStar struck with Williams in December of last year to acquire their "own" nationwide long distance network, this program would not be feasible. The consistent theme among Millennium programs is driving on-net penetration. The new deal is offered only to customers in all 2,000- plus buildings on the WinStar network (which makes them by definition on- net, and growing to 4,000-plus by YE 1999), while domestic LD traffic will now run across the Company's new LD network as well. WinStar is also taking advantage of its growing capacity for web-hosting services, and recently announced the opening of its third major data center to handle incremental web-hosting traffic. --NO CHANGE TO MODEL...YET: We recently raised our long-term forecast of on-net line growth to 90% of total lines growth, partially in anticipation of new Millennium programs, so we are not changing our forecasts at this time. Millennium II does create the opportunity for upside in terms of access line growth in 2H 1999 (we expect 0.075M and 0.085M net access line additions in 3Q and 4Q, respectively), and in terms of data revenue (where we acknowledge an overly conservative position in our model today). Additionally, Millennium II increases our confidence further that WinStar can reach 40% gross margins by YE 1999. --NET-NET: Millennium II is the just the second of what we believe will be long series of creative marketing programs designed to take advantage of WinStar's growing footprint and drive on-net penetration, while highlighting the Company's expanding focus on Internet services. We are not making any material changes to our model post this announcement, while acknowledging that our data revenue forecasts are becoming increasingly conservative. We are maintaining our DCF-derived 12-month price objective of $69/share and "strong buy" rating. --MARK YOUR CALENDARS: WinStar is a welcome late addition to the BTAB (or should we say Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown) Telecom/Media Conference in NYC on Tuesday, June 8, at 4:00 pm EST.