To: Ken who wrote (9211 ) 6/4/1999 9:40:00 AM From: JScurci Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 19700
Sorry Ken. But I did want to point out to your brethren Candle/Venkie that what goes around sometimes comes around. As for constructive information I haven't seen much of it lately on this thread. Mostly tea-leaf stuff about which price point is technical support, seasonal patterns of stock prices, and wishful thinking of how because this stock has doubled or tripled in the past, it may do so in the future.. How about valuation guys?? Ever thought you might be caught in a bubble which is quickly getting deflated. Seen lately the action in recent internet IPO's?? How does this bode for the Mother/Incubator?? How many of its future offspring will now perhaps be stillborn? Sadly it is times like these that valuations,earnings,free-cash flow do matter but are rarely discussed on these threads partly because of the lack thereof, but usually because its participants couldn't figure out the cash-flow generating figures of their investment if their life depended upon it. Much more convenient to look a charts right? Let's examine who owns Net stocks. By and large they are individuals (read non-professionals, i.e. amateurs) who have only recently discovered the stock market. They become interested only after long run-ups like the kind that started when I got into this business in 1981. Boys and girls I can remember sitting in the trading room at Morgan Stanley watching the room break out in a din of activity when the volume hit 20 million shares on the NYSE. The Dow back then by the way was about 9,700 points lower than today. People today want these Net stocks for the same reason they want in the market. It has gone up and therefore does it not now follow that what has been going up will continue to go up?? It's as sophisticated an analysis as that, sadly. The problem now is that all these stocks are largely exclusively owned by a core group of neophytes and insiders. The group of neophytes out there will shrink as these stocks go down and potential new newcomers get scared. Insiders will of course want to monetize their virtual wealth into real wealth by selling. And Wall Street of course will keep pumping out new deals to fewer buyers straining the capacity of the collective neophytes to hold all this paper. What happens when these people want to sell? I'm reminded of the old Wall Street adage: "Sell?? To Whom?? regards, John