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Technology Stocks : Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (520)	6/4/1999 3:06:00 PM
From: kas1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 684

> And sentiment alone does not constitute information > in my book. Ok, we just have different definitions then, but agree on the facts. You have more stringent criteria than I do for what makes a market "efficient." Anyway, this has little to do with TSM. :-) Best regards-

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (520)	6/12/1999 3:54:00 AM
From: gial	Respond to of 684

Fresh from Taiwan today Analysts predict --- although 64mb price continues to fall, it is bottoming out, this is due to the limited production capacity by 8"fabs; on the other hand, 12" fabs will not start operating until 2002. Therefore there is a demand supply imbalance between now and 2002. --- Such imbalance will first appear in the th qtr of 1999 and peak during the 3rd qtr of 2000. --- The current cycle in semi's should last 4 years. ie, we should have 4 years of prosperity. --- TSM's order is booked full until Sept, United Elec is booked full until Aug. Do your own dd, remember the semi industry incorrectly forecasted at the beginning of last year that 1998 would have been a great year, it then incorrectly again predicted that semi's would not rebound until at least the end of 1999. One thing is for sure, from the bottom of 10/8/98, all semi stocks have risen strongly, some acted like internets, speaking of which, the internets are acting like semi's last year. But this is another topic altogether. I have heard warnings to the Taiwanese government that it should focus on the interent trend, rather than solely rely on companies like TSM and UMC to lead the technology sector. Something to think about, in a year or two, will we as investors be better off if we invest in semi's now.