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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (7919)	6/4/1999 11:07:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

Company answered your question on GTRC: The company expects these trends to reverse in the third and fourth quarters which will increase earnings by two cents in the fourth quarter of 1999. Guitar Center would not buy Musician's Friend if it were not a great move for them, long-term. WAY oversold, IMO. Guitar Center from California is the Home Depot of the music world. They have spread across America with these grand stores that speak to the weakness in us all. . . hard to walk in one, without carrying an instrument out the front door. Competition is Thoroughbred Music from Florida, Sam Ash Music from NYC and MARS from uh. . well . . Mars. Catalogs such as Musician's Friend and Interstate have taken a big chunk of market share recently, by offering BIG STORE prices from the comfort of home. Guitar Center had no catalog presence. . . now they own the biggest of the lot. This was a strategic play to make them the CLEAR leader of the pack. The net is becoming a strong force in the music merchandising industry. Guitar Center recognizes this too. Remember at the beginning of this thread when I said that catalog companies will benefit quickest and easiest from E-Commerce, due to the small amount of change in their business model? Musician's Friend already has the warehouses, etc. Now Guitar Center has a published outlet for their older, discontinued, slow moving gear, too. All in all it is a great move for them that should have nice long term benefits. If we can nab this puppy at 10 bucks, I think their earnings will take us back before the end of year. I also think that their estimate of time for turning around earnings is conservative and that they could do it much more quickly. Rande Is

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (7919)	6/4/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

William, I have thought VVID was undervalued for a long time, but it just keeps going lower. Since Jan. 1997 the chart has fallen consistently, despite enough worldwide trouble to get them moving. (similar story for competitor INVN) I have not reviewed their sales recently, but as I recall their early success overseas did not replicate itself in this country and that turned many sour on their prospects. For those not familiar with VVID here is some info from the company: Company description: Vivid Technologies, Inc. is a leading developer and manufacturer of automated inspection systems that detect plastic and other explosives. Vivid's family of advanced explosives detection systems can be used to screen checked and carry-on luggage in an airport application and to enhance building security by screening bags and parcels. Vivid's systems identify targeted materials by analyzing the physical characteristics of each item in a bag, including the atomic number and mass, using patented composition analysis techniques and proprietary dual-energy X-ray technology. These systems automatically (without the use of an operator) isolate and identify targeted materials within a bag, thereby preventing a suspect bag from being loaded into an aircraft or entering a building until cleared by operator inspection. Vivid's systems can also be used to identify drugs and currency. Vivid's systems have been selected for use at numerous airports around the world including London's Heathrow and Gatwick Airports, Paris' Charles de Gaulle and Orly Airports, Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia, Hong Kong International Airport at Chek Lap Kok, Amsterdam Schiphol and Terminal One at JFK International Airport. For the fiscal year ended September 30, 1998, Vivid posted total sales of $38.7 million and net income of $6.6 million or $.65 per share. During fiscal 1998, shares of Vivid's stock traded at a high of $16.50 and a low of $6.875. StockHawk