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To: Lee who wrote (131047)	6/4/1999 1:26:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Lee- The long bond is trading at 5.95 as we speak.....er, type... Wouldn't that suggest a (current/future) inflation rate of....somewhere north of 3% (between 3-4%??) overall... But it appears that overall inflation is ACTUALLY running above last year's 1-2%...but below 3%....so ACTUALLY in the neighborhood of 2-3%....and not 3-4% So, wouldn't that mean that interest rates are ALREADY high enough?? And maybe too high? Concerning airline fares....some prices are going up (obviously) and some down at all times...in aggregate, it looks like inflation has increased from last year...but DOUBLED? (from 1-2% to 3-4%??...that doesn't seem to be the case)...I guess we could go into the numbers in isolation, but wouldn't we find some up, some down....on balance, a few more up than down? Oil...which has led the CPI much higher in recent months, is all likelihood a spike..this should....must be considered in the Fed's thinking... So my argument continues to be that current rates ALREADY reflect the slight/moderate rise in inflation...and that there are now balancing factors on both sides (at this higher % long bond rate), that could mean that inflation will increase or decrease from here..inconclusive....IMO If the next CPI is not decisively strong, the Fed should wait for more data (August) before acting....the long bond has already done the work for the Fed...I really hope Greenspan doesn't feel his manhood challenged by the market here, and raise just to show he is on top of inflation...unnecessary yet..

To: Lee who wrote (131047)	6/4/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: edamo	Respond to of 176387

lee..i'll concede business experience to kelley...but "economic consultant"....hardly not a "business'...more a mystical service entity.. i see no prices going up due to "demand"...i do see typical "seasonal" adjustments....i cannot go by government statistics, even though they move the equity markets...in the "real world"...it is not a sellers market....in spite of what they would lead you to think...for every multinational that is elated over its usa sales, they are gloomy about international operations.... i have an utter disdain for greenspan or anyone else who elevates himself, or allows others to elevate one to a deity status...why just reread a speech from april this week...if you have nothing "fresh" to say, stay home and keep your mouth shut.... show me one economist, or econometric model that has been more right than wrong over the past thirty years....the media with its ability has elevated the "fed"...years ago, the average man on the street thought the feds were elliot ness's crew!!!

To: Lee who wrote (131047)	6/7/1999 6:36:00 PM
From: edamo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

lee...inflationary pricing due to demand?.. was it not you just a few days ago, in defense on the fed and their "exemplary" economic forecasting ability, claim of the demand for air travel, and an increase of air fares.....so what happened with ual, just warned of poor earnings, due to overcapacity, and refusal to meet competitive ticket pricing.....how swiftly the wind changes direction....greenspan, kelley, whoever, know as much as anyone on the thread does, when it comes to the future....fed should revert back to the original charter, which didn't allow it to manipulate the credit markets...out of curiousity who "owns" the federal reserve.......