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To: David E. Taylor who wrote (131144)	6/4/1999 6:20:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

David, I've done one hell of a lot of modeling in my day, and the one thing you learn rather quickly is that very sophisticated "naive" models based on time series analysis (ARIMA modeling) don't work. And as I explained earlier, econometric modeling doesn't work. Are you fooling yourself? I suspect you are. In any case, TA doesn't work, so making the claim that it is at least as good as TA makes little sense. Basically, all of your modeling depends on the rate of dissemination of information in the marketplace. To see how rapidly this occurs, look at VISX today. The company got a positive ruling from an administrative law judge, and the stock shot up 30% on ten times normal volume. So how efficient is the spread of information in the market? That is really the crux of your modeling problem. TTFN, CTC