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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7380)	6/4/1999 10:10:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78627

Somebody at work asked me today if I'd looked at Hyde lately. I think I had two friends at work in the stock at 4 the second time and two of us sold at six and one held out for 7 or 8. 21? Wow. I've got three more net-nets that don't look as good as Mike's Hyde pick or my PSO pick, but two of the three are going to be 50%+ moves within 6-12 months. I don't know which two. And I'm not going to post them until I can find some money to buy them for myself. So until then its a teaser. Sorry. Give me two weeks.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7380)	6/4/1999 11:09:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78627

Arrrggh. Mike, I thought you doctors were into first-rule-"Do no harm"-stuff. Yeeough. That Hyde information hurts! Well, it was undervalued (imo) when you first mentioned it, and I just have to believe the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. Don't recall when I sold, but it was under 8, I think. Actually, lots of these athletic shoe stocks have done well. Your Nike of course, and especially KSwiss. I looked last week at Addidas, but info was sketchy (and now I can't find stock symbol). Aside: and as I recall, your Timberland was also a good call. I missed that one; also missed in my evaluation of Nine West. Both look like doubles from the time they were posted on this thread.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7380)	6/5/1999 6:57:00 AM
From: David	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78627

Mike: I don't want to sound like I'm gloating, but I am a little. I bought Hyde/Sucony at your suggestion at $4.25. I held on and it reached $20.50!!!!. It began to fall off and I really thought about what this company, reliably, was worth. There is where my difficulty with the company began. Earnings did not seem reliable and I could not convince myself that there was any reliable value in the company, although the earnings estimates looked tempting. If they missed the estimates, I felt there could be sizable downside risk and I would be stuck in this stock for a long time a a substantially lower price, so I sold at $17.50. Now the stock hits $21.00 on 150,000 shares, and quite naturally I'm kicking myself. But I keep repeating the old mantra, margin of safety, margin of safety. I would also mention to the thread an experience that I had with Jan Bell Marketing (JBM) which was also suggested here, and I bought when it was first mentioned at $2 7/8 and still own. As I recall, the stock jumped quickly to around $7.00 or $8.00, and as usual (I have a buy hold strategy/habit that I can't seem to kick) I still held on, only to find out when I returned from vacation last April (?) that the Sams Club contract had been canceled and the stock careened down to below where I had bought it!!! Though I'm not sure why, I'm still holding on. I have been reading this thread and the Buffetology threads for several years and I enjoy reading your Web site. I haven't been a contributor because I felt that I had little to contribute when I first began reading. But, I would like to relate some of my somewhat Grahm/Dodd experiences (Grahm Dodd in the sense that I bought these stocks, not that I held them forever in the Grahm/Dodd time frame). Incidently, I also own WHX at $9.25, which I learned about on this thread, and am very tempted to buy more at the current price ($6 7/8). I was up 50% or so on that stock for quite a while, now I'm down 30%. I would be interested in anyones thoughts on this one. I will try to be a contributor in the future. I try to utilize two or three strategies, the origins of which are Grahm/Dodd and steeped in fundamental analysis: buy and hold good companies at good prices (Buffetology) and deeply discounted issues, the classic undervalued stocks, selling at 2/3s net working capital. I also like the arb strategy on some of these buyouts like the CSE situation (although I haven't yet taken a position in that one). My problem with case, incidently, is the down side risk in the offhand chance that the deal falls through. What price will we get out of CSE if that happens??? Anyway, I felt I should thank you Mike and this thread for the helpful information that has been provided.