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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (16053)	6/5/1999 2:10:00 PM
From: briskit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bearshark, good work on A/D volume. I read in IBD "The Big Picture" market analysis, I believe on Tuesday (can't locate my paper right now) that we have had 8-9 distribution days over the last 3-4 weeks. These days indicate funds, "smart money" selling on big volume. The article may have mentioned this is associated with market tops. I am trying to put together the picture of recent "smart money" distribution and Friday "smart money" buying. Take AOL. Recent selling has brought the price back to March 18 levels of, say, 110. I imagine most funds stopped buying before March 18, but I'm guessing. AOL did 25% of it's volume Friday in the last 30 minutes, and 40% in the last hour. It had to do that 11 million just to barely exceed it's 65 day average volume. But what funds bought AOL back Friday between $110-$118? Do we suppose they got in last Fall, used the recent highs to distribute, say roughly between $130-$160, and now want it back at $115 roughly? If they didn't want it at $115 in March, why do they now? I guess my question is whether these are the "bargain basement" prices the funds have been waiting for. I doubt it. The same goes for PFE, although until recently you haven't seen these prices since January. (I am off sailing so I can't "pretty up" this data or question and still post now. I'm posting "as is", with all ignorance, investment responsibility, etc., disclaimers in effect :^}. Thanks for your earlier thoughtful response. Mike