To: bobby beara who wrote (16059 ) 6/4/1999 11:24:00 PM From: pater tenebrarum Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Bobby, i will admit that some evidence has turned up chart-wise that lends weight to the bullish stance; today's options indicators can be seen as neutral, which is actually somewhat bullish when seen in the context of a strong up day. so there may be some more upside before we turn back down. re. AOL, i expected a bounce, and it has clearly reversed back up through support/resistance; but follow-through is needed to confirm this.price is now between the 10 & 20 DMA's and has advanced from very oversold conditions, so it may well turn out to be a fluke come monday. money flow is still positive on AOL i must add. re.MSFT, i agree that the contraction of the bands portends a breakout - but i'd say it's too early to call the direction; it may have one more strong day to bring it back to the upper band and could still reverse down thereafter. money flow on MSFT is negative (although block money flow shows a slight positive reversal recently). re.INTC, this could be a corrective rally back to former support at 55, which again implies one more strong day at the least. if it reverses back down from there, the downtrend would be confirmed imo. here too money flow is decidedly negative, which by the way is the case with many nasdaq stalwarts. as to the indices, some look better than others. if the nasdaq sells off again on monday, i would call the formation on the chart a bearish flag and would expect a continued strong sell-off. the SPX and the DOW have successfully defended support levels and are back above their respective 50-day EMA's, which does look good. still, if there is no follow-through it may merely be a corrective rally. the transportation average still looks sick, but has also held at a supporting trendline so far. utilities are at a new high, which should never be argued with. the various internet indexes have had a bounce from oversold conditions, but are clearly still in downtrends. this is damage that cannot be repaired quickly, and in spite of the fund buying there may be worse to come. also keep in mind that today's advance happened on light volume, which makes it suspect as well. monday will be a very important day; if we continue up on strong volume, the bearish case will be in need of serious re-examination.
