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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (7384)	6/5/1999 12:39:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78628

Just throwing out some recent stocks catching my eye: CKE (CKR) is sitting at about 13 and pennies. Carl's Jr. is the most profitable burger joint around, but Hardy's is dragging them down. Converting to the Star Hardy's format is helping, but the conversion will take time. I see some short-sighted shareholders, and a cheap stock at just about 3X cash flow, albeit with a good helping of debt. I know they'll pull out of this. Haven't bought yet (i'd like to see some insider buying) Adams Golf (ADGO) is sitting at about 3 and has a chunk of cash. It rode a fad of sorts, but I just bought a Tight Lies so obviously I feel there is value there. A lot of cash and NO debt. There's a good golf mind there in the CEO. The new drivers line will probably have a good run. In any case I see minimum downside short of a takeunder by management. Maxtor (MXTR) I did buy recently at 5 and pennies. This company is also cash rich, with minimal debt. Has remained profitable, and management says it expects to remain profitable. But it's been taken out and shot with the other DD makers. I know DD are not a good business, but Maxtor's efficiency statistics and inventory/accounts receivable turns are great. Closely tied to Dell. I did recently nibble on Disney due to what I see as huge potential to milk free cash out of that company once it gets good management. Paul's Fruit of the Loom (FTL) and Schlotzky's (BUNZ) also tempt me but I'd take CKE over BUNZ as a restaurant play. Washington Mutual (WM) is a major bank with a lot of intangible book value that to me seems undervalued if we apply Graham to the balance sheet. They're infiltrating my neighborhood and taking business from competitors. Earning 20% on inflated equity. No position yet myself. Fresh Del Monte (FDP) looks like it is starting to fly, as is National RV (NVH). I still maintain Tidewater and Deswell are true blue core value holdings (I do own both). Homestake Mining (HM) was recently mentioned here and caught my eye. It and gold both recently made decade-old new lows. It'll be interesting to see how low they go. Evidently HM is relatively conservatively financed and a low-cost producer that will be around if gold ever recovers. Anybody know anything about Autodesk (ADSK)? At historic lows on a ratio basis. I missed Adobe when it looked like this. Good investing, Mike

To: Paul Senior who wrote (7384)	6/5/1999 2:43:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78628

re: sneaker stocks, a guru among us, and crying over net-nets that tripled after you sold them What is it about shoe companies? Mike hit on Hyde, Timberland and Finish Line, I hit on Penobscot and Nike. To the thread's credit, I don't recall a single person recommending the value traps - Reebok and Fila. Hopefully others on this thread also made some money on these. And Mike doesn't want to toot his own horn on this thread, but I will do it for him. Go visit www.valuestocks.net and look at the returns he has chalked up so far this year. He's doing something very right. If he was a mutual fund manager with this track record, even for such a short time, investors would be lining up at his door. Whatever you're doing, Mike, just keep doing it. And as for Hyde, selling Hyde at 6 doesn't bother me. I bought it at 4. Twice. I sold it at 6 or 6 1/2 twice. Do I wish I had held on and sold today at 21? Of course I do. But if I have a similar stock would I sell it at 6 again? Absolutely. I have seen several net-nets become triples and I have seen others become round-trips (i.e. they go back to 4 - then 3 - then 2). My game is getting that safe 30-50% gain. After that if somebody makes money on the stock, God bless them. Hyde had an NAV of what, 7? So 4-6 was the game I was playing because that game had 50% upside and no risk. 6-21 is somebody else's game. It doesn't bother me, because if I'm playing this game right I've put the money into another Hyde at 4. I am in another one like that now. Lazare Kaplan has net-net valuation of about $9.50 and I bought it at 7. This one I will hold for a little more than the net-net value because it has some other attributes, but I could build a case that those attributes will take the stock to $30. Will I hold out for $30? Absolutely not. I will start selling this stock at 11-13, scaling out if it keeps going up (I've got a lot of it). From there to 30 is somebody else's game, because that is not the reason I bought it. JJC