Dave, (and to some extent, this addresses DOUG's question, as well), glad to see you presenting your views on this topic here in ATHM. So, I will repost my other message, in kind, if you don't mind. A few additional comments since my original message are edited in "[ ]" brackets.
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My highlighting the fact [upstream] that there were 6,500 ISPs was [to some extent] rhetorical, but it raises a good point. Even if only 10% of them were competent enough to go after the opportunity for cable delivery, that would be a huge burden [yet, presenting a considerable amount of risk on uptake, by T]. Would you grant me the number 650, in that case? How about 2%, or 130 operators who wanted national coverage? That would about take out the entire spectrum of a healthy 550 [or even a 750 MHz] system, wouldn't it?
Getting more realistic, though, today we have thousands of switchless long distance resellers who are making money on International and domestic long distance through the aegis of rulings which permit them entry through paper means only. [[As long as they have billing and other account related software in place, and as long as they are able to cut deals with the larger players at spot rates and longer term arrangements, and continue to adminster to their end users' needs, then they are able to provide branded services just like anyone else.]]
In cable, a while back, circa '95-'96, there were some analogous situations which I think we are about to see re-surface here in the ISP 'net space. Then, for cable TV, it was in the way of Open Video Systems, or OVS.
In this kind of venue, non-facilities-based programmers and content providers were to have been allowed to deliver services through video on-demand (VoD) means on the then- still-nascent ADSL platforms, if my memory of the original intent is correct. My belief now is that we are about to se a resurgence in this approach, although today we will see it come about through previously unattainable technologies.
Through extension, such capabilities would be extended to ISPs. It goes beyond the obvious, however. What will the next gen ISPs be delivering? Some of it in fact will be streaming video which crosses over the boundaries, at times, with program delivery services, do they not? [[If not yet, then they will soon.]]
In another sense, I see such a ruling, if it were to hold, to present a huge opportunity for someone to come along a do a rollup of smaller players, aggregating their accounts, and administering them under a single or multiple larger umbrellas. This would portend an accelerated shakeout rate among smaller ISPs, and a hastening of consolidation.
If I made it sound like ISPs would be aspiring to use ATHM's actual "backbone" then I failed to convey my thoughts accurately.
>>There's no compelling reason at the moment for an ISP to chose the ATHM backbone for transport versus any other national backbone.<<
While some may actually want this, I would imagine that most would have their own uplinks to the core, bypassing ATHM's backbone entirely, and only leveraging off their head end and HFCs, which they can't put in themselves. The regular ISP, as you put it, would simply re-point their T1 facilities to the MSO's head end, instead of the dial up pool in the central office. [[And while I state this as a remotely plausible outcome, at best, I would also have to acknowledge that the degree of logistics involved to this end would be Herculean, when viewed across the larger base of providers.]]
As for DLECs getting involved, it would make imminent sense for them to also capitalize on HFC avenues, if they had the opportunity, there's nothing religious about it. Likewise, I once stated that even some MSO's might want to examine the niche opportunities of delivering resold DSL, in certain instances when HFC might suffer. That was prior to the @Work initiative, I might add, and ATHM itself proved me correct on that score.
In general, I don't think that any of the established mores or precepts of the past will hold forever true in any of these regards. I think that it's good to examine all possibilities, whenever catalytic events like yesterday's ruling occur. What do you think?
Regards, Frank Coluccio |
