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To: ftth who wrote (10397)	6/5/1999 1:02:00 AM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

Percent growth is lower, however, because of the huge disparity in the base numbers. Absolute number growth is the figure to use Put a cable system that doesnt require truck rolls against dial up and there will be a drastic shift that will never reverse. In that area total dial-up subscribers up might well shrink from the growth of cable. And this is before any real broadband applications come. However I agree that if someone could provide your hypothetical DSL-UltraLite the results would be even more astounding. Were it not for the loyalty to an e-mail address, dial-up would be dealt a death-blow. Eric

To: ftth who wrote (10397)	6/5/1999 1:20:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

One thing we have to remember and that is the Coluccio Consternation. If you deploy a cheap, fast service, it is likely to become subscribed to such an extent that the entire network capacity of the planet would be fully used by 1% of the users. The next attempt to log-on busts the entire system. This implies that the only way to deploy any waveguide high speed network is the slow incremental piecemeal method which enables the entire system to nowhere overwhelm. The copper infrastructure simply can't be scaled like nascent cable. You've got everyone DSLed, but they're pulling 20 kbps. This is one of the inherent limitations in the breadth of the intermediate market and it is one of the reasons that I long ago claimed DSL could never go very far. If line-of-sight limitations prove intractable to land based wireless, it may be that cable is the only possible mass broadband transmission technique. It seemed several years ago that this conclusion was unavoidable and that is why I felt so strongly about ATHM's growth prospects regardless of the "free ride". Now, the radio hams are converting me. At least it isn't that satellite junk. Beep, beep.