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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (7388)	6/5/1999 6:33:00 AM
From: Wallace Rivers	Respond to of 78633

Jim: This is definitely a FWIW, but I'd thought I'd throw this in. My step-brother is a golf pro, formerly repped Snake Eyes (bought by Golf Smith), now reps Wright Golf (Dr. Gil Morgan highest profile player). Says the market for the second tier guys now (IMHO Adams is in that category) is very, very, tough. Knows guys who rep Titleist, Taylor, Callaway, etc., who do very, very, well, the phone rings constantly. From what I understand, Adams has a good product, although it does nothing for me (although the Faldo wedge series is kind of interesting), because I am one of those tried and true ELY guys. My brother also says that another part of the problem with Adams is the fact that Faldo seems to have hit a very rough stretch in his career, which does zilch for marketing the product. The balance sheet on the company is awesome, however.

To: James Clarke who wrote (7388)	6/5/1999 12:43:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78633

Let me throw out a few of my own. Mattel (MAT - 25 1/4) below 27. USEC (USU - 11) below 12. Steelcase (SCS - 16 3/4) below 19. Clayton Homes (CMH - 11 3/8) below 14. Lazare Kaplan (LKI - 9) below 9. Anchor Gaming (SLOT - 43) below 50. That's my current buy list. All those were the ones I would mention too, especially Mattel and Steelcase (both of which have retreated substantially from highs).

To: James Clarke who wrote (7388)	6/5/1999 7:01:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78633

Jim: <<Applying Graham to banks can get you in a heap of trouble>> Could you perhaps elaborate on this a bit...why does applying Graham to banks get you in a heap of trouble? Not doubting, just interested in your perspective. thanks

To: James Clarke who wrote (7388)	6/7/1999 12:12:00 AM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 78633

James, re CMH: do you see any potential catalyst for better consideration by the market of the industry generally?

To: James Clarke who wrote (7388)	6/7/1999 1:30:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78633

Jim, I did go ahead and buy a smallish position in Autodesk today. Used tech money to do it, as I got rid of 40% of my Apple position just above 48 (the rest I'm holding onto). Reading through the SEC filings, Autodesk seems to be a lot more complicated than one would think. But this is mainly a contrarian play. The stock is now at the bottom of a years-long trading range, half it's 52 week high, and there is evidence of significant insider buying the last time it was this low. In fact insiders seem to reliably buy at this level and sell at double this level over the last few years. Debt next to nil, a hoard of cash that makes the stock cheaper than it appears, and a history of tremendous intraquarter order volatility that repeatedly seems to provide buying opportunities in the stock. This is another instance of the majority of its shareholders being the wrong kind. If we're looking for a double in 10 years as the absolute minimum, this thing is a lock. Right now, it has a quadruple bogey : sia flu, strong dollar, product transition, Y2K spending slowdown. Expected weakness the remainder of the year. But if history serves as any guide, Autodesk will survive and grow yet again. On a ratio basis, FWIW, the stock is at historic lows, especially if you count enterprise value as the main numerator rather than market cap. It might hit 22 yet again, but at 24 7/16 I see 10% downside and 100% upside as a potential long-term play. Mattel was my other candidate for the Apple money, and it was nearly a toss-up. Mike