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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (16102)	6/5/1999 11:33:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I hope to write a novel this weekend to go into more detail but I can argue both sides of this unfortunatly. I have short term over bought signals on many issues and indexes but also have multiple buy signals on my system and no hard short signals. A lot of issues bounced off their 200 DMAs or my trend/fork lines and bounced hard. Also many issues broke out of their downtrends Friday like EMC, LU, NOK. Like I said I can argue both sides too like WMT which was the beneficery of the RLX breaking out of that descending triangle yet formed a doji star Friday with short term topping over bought signals. This is a very mixed market right now. As for the indexes, many show the potential for a short term rally lasting a few days next week minimum while a few others look like they are already getting tired and are ready to drop. Is this going to be another period of sector rotation???? The TYX looks like it may have reached a short term top judging from it's candle stick. I will probably have to eat some crow in front of OJ as I got some buy signals on the nuts but can't get a good read if it will be a short term bounce or the beginning of a substantial rally. The pick we both had SFE, made a tweezer bottom so it could have put in a firm bottom here. To put it in a brief way, I can point to a stock ready to top out this week and drop for every stock I can point to that is about to rally upwards. I found a fork I am pretty confident on the SPX that is upwards. The other indexes are being a little more stubborn as I can see there is something else there but I can't quite nail it down. Also this pattern is bearing a lot of resembance to last June/July where we bounced briefly before the big hard drop later. I will be updatingthe MDA page daily charts shortly and should have the weekly charts done in a couple hours. Good Luck, Lee PS - Unfortunatley, the one I went short one looks like one of the ones that will rally a few days before turning back down <ng>

To: donald sew who wrote (16102)	6/5/1999 11:38:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald: It's hard to say from this point if she will follow trough with more upside or just gap back down. It can at times take several days and even weeks to fill a gap but most of them fill fairly fast. ( market or index gaps are more reliable than stock gaps ). --------------------------- I just discovered a new twist to the twisting of data, the NYSE does use an eraser on some data after the fact to take out what could be seen as discrepancies. When we down load data some gaps that were there early on are no longer showing, this really surprised me. Historical data on the NYSE for the most part gets cleaned up of anything that may indicate market manipulation by the specialist. !! I was not sensitive to this prior to having a trade report fully executed last week then got retracted after the price stayed on the ticker over 3 hours, it was erased ! so I started looking at some other anomalies, it's unbelievable if you don't see them with your own eyes, ( like a magician first you see it then you don't , & at other times it comes out of thin air ) Now I understand why they have all the disclaimers as to the Data furnished !! Most of it was going right by me as I was so focused on the current price I failed to notice the often subtle retro active changes to historical data, it's only in retrospect that the impact of this can be understood, and they manage to cover arse really well. But then what's a 1/4 pt here or there ? <OT> Well I use to do the tickets on millions of barrels of oil and even less than .0002% can add up to BIG dollars over time. There was an anomaly in the way oil could be calculated from barrels to metric tons both considered legal , accepted and official. The anomaly was minuscule but as cargo super I loaded with one and discharged with the other, no one ever even noticed except one office arm chair wanta be "chief mate" . He ridiculed me in an attempt show his stuff , saying "no one can even measure oil tath close it just isn't possible" and I agree that's true however over time the unavoidable errors in gauging will average out and that minuscule anomaly paid my yearly salary three times over. I took it to the owner and Mr. armchair got off my back.<g> But he never liked me again, but what the crap taht jerk never liked anybody he couldn't intimate. ------------------ All taht to say we had a gap up Friday morn..but it no longer shows, unfortunately I did not save a print of both the previous close and the early open so I'm not sure which one they skewed to hide it. Maybe both ? The Diamonds still show it. quote.yahoo.com There are two up gaps that look like they need to be filled, however one might say all this was doing was filling the down gap made on the 27th of May. ---------------------- At any rate if we take the bigger picture iqc.com any one can see this run is reached it's limit without a correction ; unless they want to set up a huge crash that would kill the market. Interest rates are pegging just about what they were on the last July highs and that's a good support area. Earnings are not a drop better, P/E wise they are worse than then. If people think the 5% correction has set us up for anther all time high they better think again, to me that was just a warning, rallies now are bull traps. Jim