Why the PC Will Not Die
PERSPECTIVE Computers will take many forms, but there will always be a place
for the all-purpose machine we've come to depend on.
By Bill Gates
Predicting the imminent demise of the personal computer has become an annual
ritual in recent years—and each year the PC has defied the prophets of doom (chart).
This year looks set for a repeat performance. Predictions for first-quarter global sales
were bad; the PC era was finally ending. In fact, sales grew at a healthy 19 percent
annual rate. Worldwide, well over 100 million PCs will be sold this year. That means
the world now buys almost as many PCs as color TVs.
The PC's growing popularity isn't surprising. Prices have fallen sharply while the
power of the hardware and software has kept increasing. Consumers and businesses
everywhere are rushing to get on the Web, and the PC makes that easy. But what
really sets the PC apart is the incredible empowerment and flexibility it offers in a
single, economical package. Sitting at your PC, you can do your taxes, surf the Web,
write letters, e-mail friends, play games, plan a business, buy a car, do your
homework... in fact, do whatever you want.
The PC has given the average American the kind of computing power that 10 years
ago was found only in large corporations. Yet people now take this for
granted—and want more. They want to do many of the things they can do on their
PC regardless of where they are or what device they are using—whether it's a
palm-size computer, a Web-enabled cell phone, an Auto PC or a smart television like
WebTV. A combination of sophisticated software, powerful microprocessors,
wireless technology and high-bandwidth connectivity is starting to make that a
reality.
For most people at home and at work, the PC will remain the primary computing tool;
you'll still want a big screen and a keyboard to balance your investment portfolio,
write a letter to Aunt Agnes, view complex Web pages, and you'll need plenty of
local processing power for graphics, games and so on. But the PC will also work in
tandem with other cool devices. You'll be able to share your data—files, schedule,
calendar, e-mail, address book, etc.—across different machines; you won't have to
think about it; it will be automatic. If you want to find the best price for a new
car—and check out your budget to see if you can afford it—you'll be able to do that
at the dealership, on the device you have with you. Wherever you are, whatever you
want to do, you'll have all the information you need.
Why the PC Will Not Die: page 2
At the same time—and many who doubt the PC's staying power miss this
point—the PC itself will be getting more powerful, more reliable and simpler to use.
Even though the underlying hardware, networks and software will become more
complex, that complexity will be hidden from users. There will be a simpler user
interface that adapts to your needs, with voice recognition and natural-language
processing. There will be "instant-on," so you won't have to wait for your PC to
come to life. When the PC is at the center of a home network (probably connected to
a broader network that will constantly monitor performance, update software and
download device drivers and the like), it will be incredibly easy to administer,
automatic in operation and maintenance-free. And the PC will morph into many new
forms, such as book-size "tablet PCs." But they'll still be PCs underneath, with all the
benefits of the universal PC model.
That model will play a vital role in this new world of any time, anywhere computing.
The PC's high-volume, low-cost approach will be adopted by many of the new smart
devices, because it offers amazing value to consumers. The cost of innovation is
spread widely, so everyone benefits from billions of dollars of R & D. And the PC's
broadly accepted technical standards—and open Internet standards—mean that
when you buy a new device, you'll know it will function with your existing
equipment. In this new "PC-plus" era connectivity will be king, and the PC model's
common standards will be more important than ever.
PCs gave the world a whole new way to work, play and communicate. The PC-plus
era will be just as revolutionary. It will take the PC's power and make it available
almost anywhere, on devices that haven't yet been dreamed up. Given my job, it's
hardly surprising that I'd say this. But I'm betting Microsoft's future on it.
Newsweek International, May 31, 1999 |
