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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Boplicity who wrote (10483)6/6/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: larry  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29970
 
Greg,

I own MSFT, for insurance against the market crash, and owned AOL for momentum play. I invest in MSFT, but gamble on AOL for pure momentum play. I never shorted MSFT, but frequently go shorting AOL, and never lost a penny in shorting that issue. Every time I lost on AOL, it was because I longed the issue.

I admire MSFT as a company and absolutely love the stock (which is the only one on earth that I will say love). I hold no respect for AOL and regard it as an issue that I can make some decent money.

As far as internet companies, my only long term holding is, and will be YHOO!. I used to hold lots of YHOO! for the long run. However, probably the market sentiment has deteriorated to such that I have to sell on the earning rally.

QCOM is a great one because the company is giving out guidance that the Street cannot not love. However, valuation is approaching nosebleeding level and the best people can expect is a long term of consolidation. The gap has to be filled before the end of 99 so I am looking at a drop to around 75 in the next several months.

I don't like the days of techs grinding to lower low on thin volumes. We have to have a bloody shakeout...I mean, a wipe out of, to say, 25% of the daytraders account for the next fiercely legup. The thing that scared me most is that 5-6 months after cyclic issues leading the market all the way usually is the time for big time crash, if the techs are still weak. Personally I believe that all the major nuts' gain in 99 will be wiped out by November.

Let'a argue about the AOL market cap later. It's not possbile to reach an agreement between two persons who hold directly opposite views on an issue. If AOL becomes a trillion worth company, that's cool, because that means the world is full of billionaires and I can increase my portfolio by 1000-2000% by investing in lots of other issues.

Funny that I can regard myself an AOL bull for thinking that it's worth 60 billion, after I discussed the issue with two wharton professors who believe that the issue is worth no more than 25 billions.

good luck,
larry