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Technology Stocks : Harmonic Lightwaves (HLIT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: megazoo who wrote (2806)	6/5/1999 8:57:00 PM
From: Hiram Walker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4134

SXB,this is a totally personal opinion. I am going out and buying OEX puts through October at the beginning of next week. I believe options have a place in the world,and it is not for aggressive leveraging,but for insurance. I hold a certain theory to be true,that a sequence of events has to happen to cause the US market(the strongest market in the world) to go into a bear market phase. Those events will happen this way. Number one a small European Market will collapse,possibly a peripheral EU country,Greece or Turkey. That event will be followed by a major collapse of a large EU stock market,in my opinion the likely one will be Germany. If that happens the EURO will go into a free fall,which no country will be able to stop. All the countries that signed up are permanently attached to the EURO,there is no escape clause. Well if that happens,the US stock market is going down,and going down heavy. I expect the SP500 to be down 40%,the NASDAQ closer to 50%. This is a possible scenario to guard against,thus the insurance I take out,I believe will be well spent. Hiram