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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CGarcia who wrote (20514)	6/5/1999 8:09:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

CGarcia: I agree that if T, and partners, don't get BUSY and SOON, they are going to lose valuable share (and probably forever). My experience this week is a case in point. I have been patiently waiting for EITHER DSL or cable, and said I would take whichever came first. Those jokers at TimeWarner told me RoadRunner was coming in June (the same time DSL was coming from Bellsouth). I found out 2 days ago, nope - not in my area of the city - not until "early 2000". I am in DOWNTOWN for God's sake! The next call was to Bellsouth who will be installing Thursday. I will probably never go back to cable because the speed is similar (while DSL is slower during the day - when I need it), but I am not paying for install again unless the rates become much more competitive to do so. I just don't know why that many people will choose AOL DSL when it will cost more than just getting DSL with their RBOC with no need for AOL. Content - yea right - I almost forgot. Maybe I am waaaay wrong on this, but there is mucho free content on the web that negates any need for AOL's. If I am wrong, is AOL receiving their traditional $9.99 as a piggy back to another ISP gonna be as profitable? How much of their revs come from e-comm, ads, and ISP services? IF they can provide a) that big of a value to justify the $9.99 fee, or b) a deal with the RBOCs to give AOL $9.99 monthly for each of its' customers it brings, then maybe I see it. However, they (meaning AOL and RBOCs) still have to get past the T bundling issue. I know that Bellsouth currently offers DSL, paging, cel phones, and digital TV. So maybe the RBOCs will try to keep up. However, I just don't see how "R"egional BOCs can compete with the NATIONAL competitor they have in T (and MSFT). Again, this just seems too risky a proposition with a $130 bil market cap. I am not in anyway saying AOL doesn't have a fighting chance, but I am saying it isn't worth the risk (to me). Further, AOL's growth is slowing. This is largely due to its' size, but it WILL also be dragged down AT LEAST SOMEWHAT by real competition with deep pockets and familiar names. IF IF IF AOL executes ABSOLUTELY flawlessly with ZERO hiccups, then maybe I see the valuation, but flawlessly is a tough road to hoe in this rapidly changing environment. At $130 bil market cap, there is much more room on the downside for any stumbling, then there is on the upside for perfection - IMO. Lastly, anyone notice the moves Yahoo has been making? BCST (soon to be in the fold) just did a deal with Level 3 "that gives Broadcast.com unprecedented access to bandwidth at favorable pricing." You all do know that Level3's Chairman sold his last company to MCI for BIG $$. Scott is also one of the only 2 outside directors of Berkshire Hathaway's (whose Chairman is Buffett, the second richest man in the world and one of Gates' best friends) 8 total directors. Scott's sons built the office building BRK has been in for 30 years along with all the add ons for Nebraska Furniture Mart (owned by BRK) along with mucho other projects in Omaha. The point being is that Yahoo is now in bed with one smart partner with a whooooooole lotta bandwith and some serious contacts. biz.yahoo.com And then there is wireless between YHOO and Sprint: biz.yahoo.com And then there is: Wednesday June 2, 8:50 am Eastern Time Yahoo! buys Online Anywhere for $80 million SANTA CLARA, Calif., June 2 (Reuters) - Web portal Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO - news) said on Wednesday it acquired Online Anywhere, a maker of software that delivers the Internet to non-PC devices such as televisions, personal digital assistants, or data phones, for stock valued at $80 million. ''Online Anywhere is consistent with our Yahoo! Everywhere strategy...we've acquired the best in the business to ensure that consumers can get their Yahoo! anywhere, anytime,'' said Yahoo Chairman and Chief Executive Tim Koogle said in a statement. Point being, this isn't a slam dunk for AOL. The competitors are coming hard and strong and they aren't ma and pa independent ISP.