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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (16171)	6/6/1999 1:10:00 AM
From: dclapp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

volume leads price on "true moves"

To: Berney who wrote (16171)	6/6/1999 2:16:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

Berney; I would say most of the time they go hand in hand, The volume generally slops the way the price is going increasing as a stock moves up until it runs out of momentum, at the top if the price goes on up often spiking on weak volume, "the profit taking is starting and shorts are giving up." as it sells back down the volume slops down until at the bottom there is a spike in the volume that signals capitulation as old owners give it up to new ones, and Johnny come late to the party shorts pile on thinking she is going to crash, while smart shorts are covering and all that activity causes the volume to spike, then the new shorts get burned as she starts back up they are forced to cover. ------------------ I set the MACD to 8 17 9, the longer range weekly chart gives the big picture , while we could dance back up to 11000 in some blow off top it's not likely as I think the shorts for the most part dropped out when we saw that spike on weaker volume, they were giving up. It's odd but both sides seem to capitulate almost at the last of the run up or down, the bears quit just before she falls , and the bulls sell just as she hits bottom. --------------- So I look for spikes of volume to signal a bottom, and a drop off in volume to signal a top. quote.com try that url it's handy, click on week then at the bottom click on indicator volume , note how last OCT the volume spiked right at the bottom ..also note how our volume slopped up in April as we were going up with momentum, but then the volume started to fall off for three weeks as the index went on UP, ( they diverged ) before we started down. I expect to see as much or more volume than we had in April when we put in a bottom. That garbage I heard on CNBC the other day about us putting in a new bottom almost made me want to fart in their face. Jim

To: Berney who wrote (16171)	6/6/1999 2:46:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I'll take a shot at one of those you posted as far as volume. I was watching WMT close since it was one of my picks a while ago. Your numbers show 8 Million shares versus the normal 5 million. I don't see this as bullish if that is what you are trying to point out here. WMT had a multi-day run up and just formed a doji star on this high volume day. As Jim pointed out, high volume usually signals a reverse in trend and if the last few days were up and there was high volume with no real change in the price throughout the day, my bet would be that it will be heading down soon again. Now a doji means there was indecision so it could go either way, but indecision dojis usually are on small volume from my experience and when they are on high volume, I have found it profitable to bet the opposite way most of the time. I haven't looked at your other examples enough to have an opinion on them. Froma quick look, I agree that MSFT "could" be bullishhere but it has failed to break through and hold the 80 level multiple times so I won't get excited until it does so. As for your 4 legged stool, I like that analogy. The problem I have if it is true is how the DRG index broke it's multiyear trendline and is now in a sideways fork. It could climb up a long way and still not be in the channel it had in better times. Good Luck, Lee

To: Berney who wrote (16171)	6/6/1999 9:18:00 AM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

Berney: Does price lead volume or does volume lead price? I have been watching this for years. In order to read "big boy" intentions. I coupled the above with Richard Ney's time/sale read. The answer is both, but you have to be able to read which is which. However, even after I give the clues, one must spend time ( a lot of time) learning to read the clues. That means watching and making a read, then evaluating your read on what the Market does next, to see if you got it right. Trial and error learning...there is no other way. Clues to come... Regards, LG